Federal Reserve pauses interest rate hikes

(NewsNation) — For the first time in 15 months, the Federal Reserve is leaving interest rates alone, giving policymakers more time to gauge the impact of previous rate hikes.

The Fed announced its decision to skip what would have been an 11th straight rate increase on Wednesday. But that pause could be short-lived.

“Nearly all committee participants view it as likely that some further rate increases will be appropriate this year to bring inflation down to 2% over time,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at a press conference.

The central bank’s 18 policymakers envision raising the key rate by an additional half-point this year, according to economic forecasts issued Wednesday.

“The process of getting inflation down is going to be a gradual one, it’s going to take some time,” Powell said.

The Fed’s announcement comes after government inflation data released Tuesday offered mixed news. Year-over-year inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, slowed to 4% in May — the lowest annual rise in two years.

That increase is a marked improvement from last June when consumer prices rose 9.1% but it’s still well above the Fed’s 2% target rate.

Despite the slowdown, core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, remained sticky. Those prices rose 5.3% compared to a year ago, only a slight drop from the 5.5% annual rate in April.

Since March 2022, the Fed has rapidly raised interest rates in an effort to cool inflation. But those hikes have come at a steep cost to American consumers.

Mortgage rates have nearly doubled over the past 15 months and credit card rates are also way up. On those fronts, Wednesday’s pause is unlikely to bring much relief.

“It’s not necessarily a lifeline to consumers who are trying to buy a home or dealing with massive credit card debt,” said Dan Roccato, a finance professor at the University of San Diego.

Even with the recent progress, Roccato said he doesn’t expect inflation to hit the 2% target anytime soon.

In part, that’s because the labor market has remained tight despite the Fed’s actions. Last month, there were more than 10 million job openings compared to just 6 million people looking for work.

“Labor demand still substantially exceeds the number of workers,” Powell noted Wednesday.

Although that imbalance is expected to change, Powell said, as the unemployment rate is projected to rise from 3.7% to 4.1% by the end of this year.

Economic issues continue to be the primary concern for most Americans, according to a recent NewsNation/Desk HQ poll. More than 90% of respondents said they’re concerned about inflation and a plurality said they are worse off financially today compared to a year ago.

For now, the Fed’s benchmark rate will remain at roughly 5.1% — the highest level since 2007. Although, rate hikes could return as soon as next month when policymakers meet in July.