Poll: Trump, Biden remain frontrunners among Iowa voters

(NewsNation) — President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are still the frontrunners in the 2024 presidential race among Iowa caucus voters, but both appear to be losing ground, polling found.

A recent Emerson College Polling survey puts Trump at 49% in the Iowa Republican caucus, followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 14%, Sen. Tim Scott with 8%, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley at 7% and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy at 7%. 6% are currently undecided.

Since the May Emerson poll out of Iowa, Trump’s support has fallen 13 points, from 62% to 49%. DeSantis support decreased six points from 20% to 14%. Scott’s support increased five points, from 3% to 8%, Haley’s increased two points from 5% to 7%, and Ramaswamy’s went up five points from 2% to 7%.

61% of voters plan to stand by their candidate, while 39% say they could be swayed to vote for someone else.

“Trump supporters are the most likely to stick with their candidate as 79% say they will definitely vote for the former president, while just 21% say they could change their mind,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Conversely, 71% of Scott voters, 70% of Haley, 56% of DeSantis and 46% of Ramaswamy voters say there is a chance they could change their mind and vote for a different candidate.”

Since the May Emerson Iowa poll, Biden’s support went down 19 points in the Democratic caucus, from 69% to 50%. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s dropped from 11% to 9% and Marianne Williamson’s dipped from 10% to 7%. 34% reported being undecided.

“Biden has lost some support in the Democratic caucus, with a large number of voters being undecided,” Kimball said. “Young voters and women voters are two groups who have lower support for Biden than their counterparts: Only 38% of Democratic voters under 30 support Biden in a caucus, and 41% of women are undecided.”

Kimball continued, “While both Biden and Trump have lost some support in Iowa, it does not appear that any other candidate has been able to emerge as a clear alternative. Republicans saw DeSantis fall back into the pack, as the vote splintered amongst a crowded field, and Kennedy and Williamson have failed to gain traction in Iowa.”

A hypothetical ballot from the Emerson poll between Trump and Biden, places Trump at the top among Iowa voters, 50% to 39% with 11% undecided. This is relatively unchanged since the May poll, when Trump held an 11-point lead.

The poll found that the top issue for the majority of Iowa voters is the economy, followed by healthcare, education, “threats to democracy,” abortion access, housing affordability, and immigration.