Inflation cools ahead of holiday season, could signal end to rate hikes

(NewsNation) — Inflation is slowing and just in time for the holiday season, according to the latest Labor Department report.

Financial relief may finally be on the horizon for many Americans who have been squeezed by inflation over the past few years.

It’s a sign that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes are continuing to cool the consumer price spikes that have bedeviled consumers for the past two years.

“We are far off where we are from June 2022,” wealth advisor Lawrence Sprung said.

The latest Labor Department report showed that prices either fell or rose more slowly across a broad range of goods and services, including gas, new and used cars, hotel rooms and housing.

“The inflation fever has broken,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank. “Rising petroleum production is holding down gas prices, house prices are rising more slowly after mortgage rates surged in 2023 and rents are also rising more gradually” as more apartment buildings are completed.

Overall inflation was unchanged from September to October, down from the 0.4% jump the previous month. Compared with 12 months ago, consumer prices rose 3.2% in October, down from the 3.7% rise in September and the smallest year-over-year increase since June.

It’s inching toward the Fed’s 2% target, which could signal an end to future interest rate hikes.

“We’ve seen a major decline in fuel costs which helps travel, which helps goods in need of purchase because we need fuel to make them or get them in one place to another,” Sprung said.

Supply chain improvements and interest rate hikes raised the cost of borrowing money for things like mortgages and credit cards, which also helped cool inflation.

“Raising interest rates and using those monetary tools takes time, and now, we are finally starting to see those results,” Sprung said.

The Fed meets next month and that’s when it will decide to keep interest rates the same or raise them.

Powell had said last week that Fed officials were “not confident” that rates were sufficiently high to tame inflation. The Fed has raised its benchmark interest rate 11 times in the past year and a half, to about 5.4%, the highest level in 22 years.

But the central bank has raised its key rate just once since May. Since its last meeting on Nov. 1, a government report showed that hiring cooled in October compared with September, and wage growth slowed, thereby easing pressure on companies to raise prices in the coming months.

Adams, echoing other economists, said he thinks the Fed’s most likely next move will be to cut rates, likely by mid-2024.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.