(NewsNation Now) — There are two competing forces that will compel Russian President Vladimir Putin to act in the next days and weeks as he continues the invasion into Ukraine, an expert told NewsNation on “Morning in America” Tuesday.
“What he holds dearest is his power, and what he is most afraid of is democracy,” retired Lt. Gen. Richard Newton, former assistant vice chief of staff of the U.S. Air Force, said.
Tuesday marked the sixth day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russian forces bombarded Ukraine’s largest cities, advancing its reportedly 40-mile-long convoy of military equipment closer to Kyiv, the country’s capital.
On Monday, a Ukrainian delegation held talks with Russian officials at the border of Belarus. Although the two countries spoke for five hours, there was no cease-fire, as Ukraine had been urging.
When it comes to these talks, Newton said expectations on all sides — and for those in the U.S — need to be managed.
“I would not anticipate any of these talks for the foreseeable future really to bring any type of success at all,” Newton said, though he added that just the fact that the two sides are talking speaks to the position Russia is in.
Newton said Russia is now somewhat bogged down, and is off its original timeline for the invasion.
Though embattled, Ukraine reported some success in fending off assaults Friday night, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has refused to lay down arms, saying, “We will defend our state.”
From a diplomatic standpoint, Newton said, Zelenskyy has several instruments he can use as a position of strength in terms of diplomatic, finance, economic and military information.
At the same time, U.S. Senator Mark Warner, D-Va., said Ukraine does not have enough military capability to take on the level of troops and equipment Russia has massed around the Ukrainian border.
Even so, he pointed out, “the whole world has been taken with President Zelenskyy … vowing to stay in Kyiv, and fight for his nation.”
“My belief is, even if the Russians are able to overcome the Ukrainian military, to try to occupy a nation of 44 million people or any portion of that, they’re going to have an insurgency on their hands,” Warner said. “That’s why this is such a dangerous time.”
Now, U.S. intelligence communities and others are trying to understand Putin’s state of mind, Newton said.
“Is he listening to his generals or not? Does he pull out other instruments of warfare?” Newton said. “Yes or no? That’s the calculus. We’re really trying to get an understanding of where he is.”
Normally, Putin might have tried to call a false flag operation, Warner said, where, to justify the invasion, he might try to promote a coup or make it look like Ukrainians are attacking Russians.
“The fact that the American intelligence community has pointed those things out and forward-leaned and said, ‘this is probably the day that the Russians are going to invade,’ has gotten rid of any ability for Putin or his forces to somehow say, ‘this is not an unprovoked attack,'” Warner said. “This is an unprovoked attack against an independent nation.”
“You’re seeing the people of Ukraine put their lives on the line, basically, to try to stand up for their democracy and their desire to be more aligned with America and the West,” he added. “And I think that is sending an extraordinarily powerful signal now.”