NewsNation Chief Washington Anchor and On Balance host Leland Vittert was a foreign correspondent for four years in Jerusalem. He gives you an early look at tonight’s 7 p.m. ET show. Subscribe to War Notes here.
Why Isn’t Trump 20 Points Up?
“Biden battles severe polling numbers,” “Biden’s pitiful polling numbers” and “Biden losing support among Black voters.”
- Versions of all three statements showed up on Fox News today, largely based on an NBC News poll that “Meet the Press” anchor Kristen Welker just couldn’t understand.
- Caleb Howe (@CalebHowe) headlines in Mediaite, “‘So Striking!’ NBC’s Welker Flummoxed By New Poll Showing Trump Whomping Biden On Economy.”
And it’s not just on the economy, where former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden by 22 points:
- On competency: Trump leads by 16 points.
- On securing the border: Trump leads by 35 points.
- On support from Black voters: Biden leads by 59 points, but compare that to Biden’s 75-point lead over Trump in the 2020 election.
And Biden’s approval rating is 37%.
- Compare this to the NBC poll at the beginning of previous reelection years:
- In 2004, President George W. Bush was at 54%
- In 2012, President Barack Obama was at 49%
- In 2020, President Trump was at 46%
Yet in the same head-to-head matchup polls, former Trump only beats Biden by five points.
We’ve seen this play before: In 2022, Republicans promised certain majorities in the House and Senate and snatched failure from the jaws of victory.
While it’s easy to say the poll doesn’t have any good news for Biden, being only down by five points IS the good news.
Look forward: As we told you last week, the media narrative surrounding the economy and border is rapidly moving in Biden’s favor. The polls show a significant number of voters who prefer Trump on the issues but would vote for Biden because that is a HUGE problem for Trump.
Biden knows this — he isn’t worried. Letting Trump run against himself and the media piling onto him are two of the many reasons Biden won’t be doing the usual pre-Super Bowl TV interview.
- Thought bubble: Imagine a historically unpopular Trump (rather than Biden) bombing targets in the Middle East, amidst terrible poll numbers, the border crisis, continued economic angst and as the least accessible president in modern times. Would the coverage be different?
Watch tonight: Bill O’Reilly will talk about why Trump can’t capitalize on Biden’s stumbles and whether 2024 will just be a repeat of the Republicans’ 2022 mistakes.
Bonus points: Nikki Haley’s “YOLO” campaign raised $16.5 million in January alone. Haley is going all in, including appearing on “Saturday Night Live.” She continues to hammer the electability angle. Why isn’t she breaking through?
- Thought bubble 💭: Where was this Nikki Haley months ago?
Free Money — What Could Go Wrong?
The illegal immigrants skipping away after beating up cops notwithstanding, New York’s mayor will hand out prepaid credit cards to migrant families, according to reporting from Craig McCarthy (@createcraig) at the New York Post.
- The income redistribution, by definition, takes money from law-abiding and taxpaying New Yorkers and gives it to those in the city illegally and almost certainly not paying taxes.
- The morality of that can be debated.
- The wisdom is already known — look to Washington, D.C., for how this could go wrong.
- The Washington Post follows the success (or lack thereof) of a program giving poor mothers $10,800 a year with no strings attached.
- One of the highlights: “The five-day, $6,000 trip to Miami was a dramatic upgrade from the Ocean City and Virginia Beach visits that Miller’s family was used to. Joined by the children’s father, a boat tour exposed them to million-dollar homes and luxury yachts.”
- The Washington Post follows the success (or lack thereof) of a program giving poor mothers $10,800 a year with no strings attached.
Deterrence Not Restored
Iranian-backed groups have attacked American troops three times since the retaliatory strikes on Friday night. The Houthis in Yemen upped the ante as a member of their political office was quoted by the Washington Post saying that strikes against them “will not go unanswered, and we will meet escalation with escalation.”
- This is evidence of a few things:
- The Iranians didn’t tell their friends to stop.
- The American strikes did not obliterate their militias’ weapons inventory or command and control.
- The threat of future American action did not deter or frighten the militias.
- This is a very different response from Iran than when Trump ordered the killing of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps head Qassem Soleimani – if you believe Trump’s version of it.
And despite all of this, the Biden administration claimed success without even knowing who we killed, as indicated by national security adviser Jake Sullivan’s response on CNN’s “State of the Union”.
John Kirby talked passionately about the three Americans killed last week on Fox News Sunday, saying, “(The) President’s not going to sit back and idly just take that. We’re gonna respond, and we’re gonna respond as aggressively as we need to.”
What about Greg Abbott?
Trump is producing the “veepstakes” like it’s a season of “The Apprentice,” complete with the behind-the-scenes commentary delivered this weekend to Maria Bartiromo on Fox, as reported by Shauneen Miranda (@ShauneenMiranda) on Axios.
David Smith with The Guardian quotes our good friend Kurt Bardella saying, “It’s very clear (Trump’s) holding these open auditions like it’s ‘The Apprentice.’ He will flirt with everyone. He will make them dance. They will all debase themselves and humiliate themselves and jockey for that spot.”
- It’s hard to argue with Bardella’s logic, but we will make him defend it tonight on the show along with Decision Desk HQ’s Data Science Director Scott Tranter. They’ll also discuss whether vice presidential picks even matter. If you ask John McCain, they do.
But nobody is talking about Greg Abbott for vice president. He won’t “dance” as Bardella put it, which might make him oddly more appealing to Trump, who secretly admires those refusing to kiss the ring.
The counterpoint: Trump would be wise to pick someone for vice president who is significantly less appealing to the Senate than him — in case there was another impeachment, the Senate would then have an interesting choice. This is something to think about as we play Washington’s parlor game for the next four months.
Don’t Believe Anyone on the Border Compromise Bill
Watch: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., says the House and Senate must pass a massive Ukraine, Israel and border deal or American soldiers will soon be at war with Putin in Europe.
Plus: House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., says the compromise bill is “dead on arrival,” and Biden says he needs Congress to act before he can secure the border.
- Fact check: None of the above is true.
Tweet du jour: Senator Mike Lee, R-Utah: “Fun fact, the U.S. Marine Corps budget in FY23 was $53.8 billion. This bill would give Ukraine more than $60 billion.”
Thought bubble 💭: Sausage-making is messy. For the first time in recent memory, the House and Senate are ACTUALLY doing their job and compromising to create legislation on important issues rather than just agreeing to spend more money. We need more, not less, of this.
Tune into “On Balance with Leland Vittert” weeknights at 7/6C on NewsNation. Find your channel here.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily of NewsNation.