Leland Vittert’s War Notes: Lowering Expectations?

NewsNation Chief Washington Anchor and On Balance host Leland Vittert was a foreign correspondent for four years in Jerusalem. He gives you an early look at tonight’s 7 p.m. ET show. 

Programming alert: One of the Jewish students suing Harvard over antisemitism joins us. We will also have former Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich on to talk about the differences between Donald Trump and Hunter Biden’s legal woes. 

Why is Trump Lowering Expectations After He Won Last Night? 

Despite saying they “couldn’t have scripted (last night) any better ourselves,” the Trump campaign began immediately lowering expectations for the Iowa caucuses in four days. 

• Politico quoted a top Trump adviser, Chris LaCivita, saying, “A win is a win. … But anything over 12 [points] I think is a great night.”
  • Thought bubble: For a guy quoting polls showing him 30 points up, Trump’s team is drastically and quickly lowering expectations AND trying to drive his supporters to caucuses in minus-30-degree weather. 
  • Look forward: As we have explained all week, never before has winning, winning big and winning early been so important to Trump both legally and politically. 

Since you weren’t watching the split screen: Nothing changed last night after the debate between Haley and DeSantis. That’s great for Trump, bad for Ron DeSantis and worse for Nikki Haley. 

Every presidential election since Eisenhower in 1952 other than 1976 and 2020 can be explained by the question: Who would you rather have a beer with? 

There are four days until Iowa. Let’s look at last night through that lens: 

• Trump appeared in control, at times funny, likable and made a few attempts at moderation without saying anything crazy:
  • Maggie Haberman this morning on CNN rightly pointed out he started to sound like a general election candidate with his answer, “I won’t have time for retribution.” 
• Now the underdog fight: DeSantis still can’t figure out how to be likable, self-deprecating, approachable, confident without being arrogant, funny or generous of spirit, all traits of people you want to have a beer with. Despite the obvious coaching, he still comes across as the kid in debate class.
• The biggest loser: Nikki Haley missed an enormous opportunity. With momentum in New Hampshire and Chris Christie dropping out, this was her moment. She pushed her website DesantisLies.com 16 times. Julia Mueller (@jmthewriter), at our partners The Hill, counted.
  • Nothing she did or said put her above the fray, on equal footing with Trump or made people look at her in a new light. 
  • That said, standing next to Ron DeSantis makes anybody look good. 
• Woof. Voters consistently tell us they don’t care about the Twitter fights between operatives or your website. Instead, voters care about themselves and the inflation and the border and national security and their kids’ education. Neither Haley nor DeSantis elevated themselves last night. 
• If you have to ask, by default, the front-runner wins. 

Bonus points: The media is coming to terms with a likely Trump presidency. If you had to put money on one candidate right now becoming president, it would be Trump. 

• Let the counseling sessions begin. Bret Stephens in the New York Times writes, “The Case for Trump … by Someone Who Wants Him to Lose.”
• Thought bubble 💭: Maybe we were right a few months ago in saying the real drama will be on the Democratic side. 

Look forward: Compare Trump last night to first lady Jill Biden’s MSNBC interview where she called President Joe Biden’s age an “asset” and claims America doesn’t see how hard he works. 

New World Order 

Alex Longley (@alexlongley1) with Bloomberg reports ships transiting the Red Sea “advertise Chinese links to avoid Houthi attack.”

• Zoom out: Iran controls the Houthis, and China controls Iran.
• Zoom in: The Houthis keep pounding American Navy ships in the Red Sea, and we are doing nothing in response. 

What’s next? Amelia Nierenberg (@AJNierenberg) at The New York Times headlines, “The U.S. weighs retaliation after Houthi attacks.”

• Thought bubble: What exactly are we weighing? They have tried to sink U.S. Navy ships dozens of times and continue to fire at Americans.
  • Either the United States will enforce its warnings to the Houthis, or the world will realign itself with countries that will protect their ships, etc. 

Worse still: Iran keeps embarrassing Secretary of State Antony Blinken while he is in the Middle East. From our friends at Politico’s Playbook: “Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN is on the latest cover of Time for a feature from Vera Bergengruen about this moment’s massive test for American leadership on the world stage.”

• If you have to ask: We aren’t meeting that test. 

Don’t look now — Iran just seized an oil tanker in international waters. 

Watch tonight: Ambassador John Bolton will be on to discuss. 

Why Did We Legalize Pot If It Is This Dangerous?

Julie Wernau (@littlewern) at The Wall Street Journal is out with a devastating article about the effects of marijuana on young adults.

• Wernau writes, “Even one psychotic episode following cannabis use was associated with a 47% chance of a person developing schizophrenia or bipolar disorder, a 2017 study in the American Journal of Psychiatry showed. The risk was highest for people 16-to-25-years-old and higher than for substances including amphetamines, hallucinogens, opioids and alcohol.”

Yet: Walk down the streets in most major American cities, and it reeks of weed. 

Yet: It’s harder to buy cigarettes than heroin. 

How did this happen?: Somewhere along the way, we decided nicotine is a bad drug, and pot is a good drug. 

Watch tonight: 

• Why won’t we protect kids and young adults from a drug known to cause major mental health problems?
• How did we legalize something so dangerous? 

Bottom line: America now reeks of pot but outlawing menthol cigarettes? 

Watch: Dr. Drew lays out the effects of legal marijuana.

End of an Era

Nick Saban retired with fame and glory, and within 24 hours, his longtime friend Bill Belichick got fired after a horrific few seasons. 

Thought bubble: Saban did something few men of power and fame have the confidence and foresight to achieve: He went out on top (or close to it). 

Fact of life: Seventy-two is too old to be a coach in football with the long hours, but 78 or 82 is just fine to be leader of the free world. 

Money Won’t Fix the Police Recruiting Problem

We heard from a lot of you about our segment on San Francisco offering $112,000 a year to rookie cops and still not hiring anyone. 

Watch tonight: Lt. Tracy McCray of the San Francisco Police Union joins to explain why money won’t fix the police recruiting problem in America.

It’s a national problem. Excellent reporting from Eliyahu Kamisher (@eli_kamisher) and Sarah Holder (@sarahsholder) at Bloomberg highlights, “Ithaca, New York, has offered a $20,000 signing bonus for lateral hires. ‘Twenty years ago, we would have hundreds of people knocking down our door to be police officers,’ said Ted Schwartz, acting police chief in Ithaca, a city of about 32,000 that’s home to Cornell University. ‘That’s not true in our society anymore.’”

Ground truth: If you can’t hire cops, you can’t fix America’s crime problem.You may remember this from Tuesday’s War Notes, but the segment will now air tonight.

Tune into “On Balance with Leland Vittert” weeknights at 7/6C on NewsNation. Find your channel here. 

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily of NewsNation.