NewsNation Chief Washington Anchor and On Balance host Leland Vittert was a foreign correspondent for four years in Jerusalem. He gives you an early look at tonight’s 7 p.m. ET show. Subscribe to War Notes here.
Let’s fast forward to 10:30 p.m. ET when the debate ends. If you ask yourself, “Who won?” the answer is nobody. Unless it’s obvious, nothing will have changed materially in the debate.
- Tomorrow, God willing, the Supreme Court will issue their ruling on the Trump immunity case so we can all begin our Fourth of July vacations!
State of Play
Walking onto the stage tonight, you would rather be Trump. He’s erased Biden’s money advantage, he’s peeling away Black and Latino voters, two recent polls show Trump up significantly in the national head-to-head and Biden faces an uphill battle on the economy.
From Scott Tranter, head of data science, at our partner Decision Desk HQ:
- “Our model currently predicts that Donald Trump is maintaining a 58% chance of winning the Presidency. Former President Donald Trump continues to hold a nine-vote cushion over President Joe Biden in our model, even without accounting for the 77 electoral votes of our six Toss-Up states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin). Our overall projection continues to show Trump with a 58% chance to win. Although Biden won all six of these states in 2020, Trump is currently projected to flip four of them. Biden does not lead in the polls in any of these six Toss-Up states, and continues to poll well behind his 2020 margin in most battleground states.”
Not just the White House: The top of the ticket will greatly affect the rest of it.
DDHQ’s Forecast continues to point to a GOP trifecta: Republicans capturing the Presidency and US Senate while retaining control of the US House:
- “Even without winning any Toss-Up states, Trump currently is projected as having a nine-electoral vote lead, 235-226.
- “Even without winning any Toss-Up states, Republicans currently are projected to win 51 Senate seats.
- “Republicans are currently favored, though narrowly, in 12 of the 16 Toss-Up House races.”
And it’s not just DDHQ: Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight gives Trump a 65% chance of winning, writing, “The presidential election isn’t a toss-up.”
Nostalgia at work: Our friend George Will is out with a must-read in the Washington Post before the debate:
- “Biden’s most remarkable achievement as president has been to produce ‘Trump nostalgia.’ Analyst Charlie Cook notes that when Donald Trump left Washington 14 days after the Jan. 6, 2021, debacle, 55 percent of people polled by CNN considered his presidency a failure. Trump is the only president in more than 70 years of modern Gallup polling to not reach 50 percent approval while in office; his presidency is now rated a success by 55 percent.”
Fair question for Biden campaign surrogate Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., tonight: 55% of Americans like Trump 1.0. Is scaring Americans about Trump 2.0 the best strategy?
From Bloomberg: The largest year-by-year increase in trouble paying bills was among Black Americans — is that why they’re leaving Biden?
Watch tonight: Tranter will discuss Biden and Trump’s dueling rallies tomorrow (North Carolina and Virginia respectively). Both men are going into unfriendly territory.
Provoking Trump
Can Trump screw all of the above up? Of course!
Just ask Chris Wallace, who gleefully recalls the disastrous debate he moderated.
Democrats will argue Trump nostalgia comes from Trump amnesia and much of Biden’s prep sessions center around “reminding” Americans of all things terrible about Trump with a few zingers about:
- Him being a convicted felon
- Him claiming he won the 2020 election
- Jan. 6
- Here is a new one: Joy Reid on MSNBC called Trump an “adjudicated sex offender. It’s a carefully crafted phrase that came from the E. Jean Carroll civil trial.”
- Just saying: That phrase sounds like something from the campaign or a balloon they floated – watch for that line as one of Biden’s preplanned “zingers.”
History tells us: Trump can’t control himself when provoked – he will fight back.
- Team Biden appears to relish the fight – they’ll want to bring out the out-of-control Trump a la the Chris Wallace debate of 2020.
- Muted mics: While the TV audience won’t hear the interruption, the other candidate who’s turn it is will while trying to continue their thought.
- Myth of the muted mic: Having Trump screaming will still distract Biden and Trump can always make faces that say a thousand words on the split screen.
- Click here to watch the CNN-supplied demo.
Flip the narrative: What if we really do get “nice” Trump as his advisors seem to hope?
How about this from Bill O’Reilly: “Somewhere towards the end of the bloviating, when the debate tone has been set, Trump needs to look directly into the camera and say: ‘I love my country. I wouldn’t be doing this if I did not. I realize some Americans don’t like me. I understand. But my four years in office strengthened our country, most Americans benefited. And we’ll do that again if I can earn your vote. I promise.’”
Fair question: We’ll ask Trump campaign press secretary Karoline Leavitt why Trump is already acting like a loser by claiming CNN hosts aren’t fair and Biden is doping.
- If this were a sports game, a team complaining about the refs and talking about doping isn’t a position of strength before the game!
Look forward: Trump has ways to divert attention if he does badly, namely by announcing his pick for vice president.
- The Biden campaign doesn’t have many good options.
- That said, so long as Biden doesn’t fall asleep, the media will say he rose to the occasion. That will help Biden with low-information voters.
Prebuttal: Biden’s favorite morning show already issued a full-throated defense of Jake Tapper and Dana Bash’s performance.
Bonus coverage: Watch last night’s segment with Bill Sammon and Chris Stirewalt, who ran debates for Fox News, discussing what calculations Team CNN is making.
- Yes, the stakes are high, writes The Washington Post.