Leland Vittert’s War Notes: When is Biden’s Turn?

NewsNation Chief Washington Anchor and On Balance host Leland Vittert was a foreign correspondent for four years in Jerusalem. He gives you an early look at tonight’s 7 p.m. ET show. Subscribe to War Notes here.  

I couldn’t believe this: The Decision Desk HQ election model shows former President Donald Trump with a 58% chance of winning and a 79% chance of Republicans taking the Senate. 

• Go deeper: Click here to test drive the model that incorporates polling and FEC data. 

Don’t miss this: Director of data science at Decision Desk HQ and my good friend Scott Tranter joins the show for a stress test of the model. 

• Bonus: Does all the talk surrounding Trump on trial help or hurt Trump in their modeling? 

Joe Biden on Trial: Coming Soon to a Rural Courthouse Near You

Once you set a precedent of county district attorneys indicting former presidents for (effectively) political reasons, you can’t come back from that. 

The hours of verdict watch give you a lot of time to think. My thoughts turn to what the New York trial of Trump foretells. 

• Not because of what it does or doesn’t do to Trump but because of what it does to America.
  • Look forward: An equally politically-motivated prosecution of President Joe Biden (or his son) is almost certain to come
    • In a few years, a rural district attorney in Missouri will figure out that Hunter Biden’s consulting company once paid an invoice in his county, giving him jurisdiction
    • The rural DA will impanel a grand jury in the 80% red county 
    • The grand jury will indict Joe or Hunter or both Bidens on conspiracy to commit bribery charges 
    • Like the New York case, it will be mostly smoke and mirrors surrounding very unsavory activity 

What I’m thinking: This is bad for America, and there is one person who can bring us back from it: namely, Biden.

• Either he doesn’t care about the precedent it sets, or he’s hell-bent on revenge because he thinks Trump wrongly involved Hunter in the 2020 campaign

This caught my eye: The stripper turned Hunter’s baby mama is out with a new book just in time for the Democratic National Convention.

• Fun thought: She needed two ghostwriters? 
• This will matter: She is understandably angry after Hunter and the Biden family, et al. humiliated her and refused to acknowledge her daughter.
  • Hell hath no wrath like that of a woman scorned. 

Did You See This? Dominant Masculinity

Jerry Seinfeld misses the “dominant masculinity” that used to be, forgive me, dominant in American culture. 

• This is cool: Click here to watch Seinfeld and Bari Weiss on her podcast.
• Human equation: Comedians must be keen observers of society. Seinfeld is picking up on something happening in America, even with his fellow liberal elite. 

This Will Matter: Biden Keeps Trying with Black Voters

Without winning an overwhelming majority of Black voters, Biden loses — it’s that simple. 

• Yet article after article, poll after poll, shows him hemorrhaging support among that group, especially young Black men. 
• After Trump’s Bronx rally, Biden heads to Philadelphia for a rally at a Black school.

From Hans Nichols at Axios:

• “Following a rally at Girard College, a private boarding school in Philadelphia, Biden will attend an organizing event at a local Black-owned small business, where he’ll tout his administration’s record on improving Black household wealth.”
• “‘Today’s launch of the Black Voters for Biden-Harris coalition is yet another example of our campaign working diligently to earn every single vote,’ said Quentin Fulks, Biden’s principal deputy campaign manager.”

Look back: Mr. Biden’s last strategy of telling young Black men how much America hates them didn’t help. 

What I’m thinking: I’ve lost count of the “new” Biden strategies to court Black voters. Maybe the problem isn’t the strategy.

Where Will They Go? 

A Newsweek poll shows roughly half of New Yorkers say the influx of migrants in New York City significantly impacts their quality of life … another 30% said “a fair amount.” 

• Look back: During the influx of Irish, German and Jewish immigrants into America, the immigrants wanted to assimilate, businesses needed workers, and the city built schools. It wasn’t perfect, but it worked.
• Ground truth: Tens of thousands of young men sit on street corners smoking cigarettes. Many have been promised free housing, debit cards and free food by smugglers seeking payment for a one-way trip to America. 
• Look forward: It’s impossible for this to end well.
  • New York is out of money to deal with the crisis. 
  • You couldn’t build shelters fast enough even if you had the money

Tune into “On Balance with Leland Vittert” weeknights at 7/6C on NewsNation. Find your channel here. 

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily of NewsNation.