NewsNation Chief Washington Anchor and On Balance host Leland Vittert was a foreign correspondent for four years in Jerusalem. He gives you an early look at tonight’s 7 p.m. ET show. Subscribe to War Notes here.
I couldn’t believe this: The Decision Desk HQ election model shows former President Donald Trump with a 58% chance of winning and a 79% chance of Republicans taking the Senate.
- Go deeper: Click here to test drive the model that incorporates polling and FEC data.
Don’t miss this: Director of data science at Decision Desk HQ and my good friend Scott Tranter joins the show for a stress test of the model.
- Bonus: Does all the talk surrounding Trump on trial help or hurt Trump in their modeling?
Joe Biden on Trial: Coming Soon to a Rural Courthouse Near You
Once you set a precedent of county district attorneys indicting former presidents for (effectively) political reasons, you can’t come back from that.
The hours of verdict watch give you a lot of time to think. My thoughts turn to what the New York trial of Trump foretells.
- Not because of what it does or doesn’t do to Trump but because of what it does to America.
- Look forward: An equally politically-motivated prosecution of President Joe Biden (or his son) is almost certain to come
- In a few years, a rural district attorney in Missouri will figure out that Hunter Biden’s consulting company once paid an invoice in his county, giving him jurisdiction
- The rural DA will impanel a grand jury in the 80% red county
- The grand jury will indict Joe or Hunter or both Bidens on conspiracy to commit bribery charges
- Like the New York case, it will be mostly smoke and mirrors surrounding very unsavory activity
- Look forward: An equally politically-motivated prosecution of President Joe Biden (or his son) is almost certain to come
What I’m thinking: This is bad for America, and there is one person who can bring us back from it: namely, Biden.
- Either he doesn’t care about the precedent it sets, or he’s hell-bent on revenge because he thinks Trump wrongly involved Hunter in the 2020 campaign
This caught my eye: The stripper turned Hunter’s baby mama is out with a new book just in time for the Democratic National Convention.
- Fun thought: She needed two ghostwriters?
- This will matter: She is understandably angry after Hunter and the Biden family, et al. humiliated her and refused to acknowledge her daughter.
- Hell hath no wrath like that of a woman scorned.
Did You See This? Dominant Masculinity
Jerry Seinfeld misses the “dominant masculinity” that used to be, forgive me, dominant in American culture.
- This is cool: Click here to watch Seinfeld and Bari Weiss on her podcast.
- Human equation: Comedians must be keen observers of society. Seinfeld is picking up on something happening in America, even with his fellow liberal elite.
This Will Matter: Biden Keeps Trying with Black Voters
Without winning an overwhelming majority of Black voters, Biden loses — it’s that simple.
- Yet article after article, poll after poll, shows him hemorrhaging support among that group, especially young Black men.
- After Trump’s Bronx rally, Biden heads to Philadelphia for a rally at a Black school.
From Hans Nichols at Axios:
- “Following a rally at Girard College, a private boarding school in Philadelphia, Biden will attend an organizing event at a local Black-owned small business, where he’ll tout his administration’s record on improving Black household wealth.”
- “‘Today’s launch of the Black Voters for Biden-Harris coalition is yet another example of our campaign working diligently to earn every single vote,’ said Quentin Fulks, Biden’s principal deputy campaign manager.”
Look back: Mr. Biden’s last strategy of telling young Black men how much America hates them didn’t help.
What I’m thinking: I’ve lost count of the “new” Biden strategies to court Black voters. Maybe the problem isn’t the strategy.
Where Will They Go?
A Newsweek poll shows roughly half of New Yorkers say the influx of migrants in New York City significantly impacts their quality of life … another 30% said “a fair amount.”
- Look back: During the influx of Irish, German and Jewish immigrants into America, the immigrants wanted to assimilate, businesses needed workers, and the city built schools. It wasn’t perfect, but it worked.
- Ground truth: Tens of thousands of young men sit on street corners smoking cigarettes. Many have been promised free housing, debit cards and free food by smugglers seeking payment for a one-way trip to America.
- Look forward: It’s impossible for this to end well.
- New York is out of money to deal with the crisis.
- You couldn’t build shelters fast enough even if you had the money
Tune into “On Balance with Leland Vittert” weeknights at 7/6C on NewsNation. Find your channel here.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily of NewsNation.