NewsNation National Correspondent Robert Sherman has found himself on the frontlines of some of the world’s biggest stories: from Ukraine to Israel and across the United States. He shares what he’s seeing on the ground. Subscribe to his newsletter: Frontlines with Robert Sherman here.
Here it comes.
In the wake of three United States service members being killed in Jordan, the White House says a response is coming. John Kirby from the White House podium on Thursday said, “We’ll respond on our own time, on our own schedule,” adding, “I would also caution you not to think that the first thing you see won’t be the last thing.”
For some, it feels well overdue. The Pentagon said earlier this week over 160 attacks have been carried out against American troops in the Middle East since October. Despite the added attention and anger since this weekend’s tragedy, the attacks keep coming.
WATCH: Biden vows U.S. response after drone attack in Jordan
“I don’t think we could be any more clear that we have called on the Iranian proxy groups to stop their attacks. They have not.” said Maj. General Pat Ryder. “And so we will respond in a time and manner of our choosing. When I say actions speak louder than words, you know, there has been three attacks, to my knowledge, since the 28 of January. And I’ll just leave it there.”
We’ve heard the same sentiment again and again. The U.S. does not want a wider war in the region. On the other hand, deterrence must be re-established. There have been countless attacks by proxies of Iran including militia in Iraq and Syria but also the Houthis in Yemen as well. Overnight, CENTCOM announced they shot down an anti-ship ballistic missile belonging to the Houthis as well as three Iranian UAVs.
WATCH: White House plans military response to deadly Jordan drone attack
No matter what name each militia fights under, at the heart of the issue is Iran. The White House says they hold Iran personally responsible for the attack that killed American troops. The group that specifically perpetrated the attack is the Islamic Resistance: A proxy of Iran.
“We know that Iran supports these groups. The degree to which they order and direct is something that intelligence analysts will look at,” explained Kirby. “We know they support them. We know they resource them. We know they train them. We know that they’re certainly not discouraging these attacks.”
WATCH: Could U.S. recognize a Palestinian State?
Adding to that, Reuters reporting today that the drone used to carry out the attack was Iranian made according to sources.
Iran knows they are at the center of American ire at the moment. In one breath, they made clear they don’t want a war with America. In a separate comment, however, they may as well have said “try us if you dare.”
“Sometimes the enemies make threats, and even these days we hear some unnecessary threats from the words of American officials, we tell them that they have tested us in previous fields and we also have tested you,” said Chief Commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard General Hossein Salami. “You know that we do not leave any threats unanswered. While we are not looking for war, we are not afraid of war, and we do not run away from it.”
The U.S. is faced with a few forks in the road. To hit Iran directly, or not? To retaliate strong enough in the region to re-establish deterrence but not too strong so as to ignite the powder keg that is the Middle East.
And yes, powder keg is hardly hyperbole. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said as much this week.
“I would argue that we’ve not seen a situation as dangerous as the one we’re facing now across the region since at least 1973, and arguably even before that,” Blinken said.
WATCH: ‘We have to impose enough pain on Iran’ – John Bolton
In conversations about military strategy and diplomacy, you’ll often hear the overused quote from the Chinese General Sun Tzu, author of “The Art of War”: “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”
There is an important question at the heart of this: What does Iran really want?
My colleague, Connell McShane, had Congressman Adam Smith, D-Wash., on his show last night to which he said something rather profound about Iran’s intentions.
“If you’re not looking for war, you don’t shoot at people,” Smith said. “So, Iran needs to stop doing that going forward.”
Fair enough, I suppose.
If you ask people here on the ground in Israel this is hardly anything new. It’s well documented Hamas has the support of Iran. Hezbollah in Lebanon has the support of Iran. The numerous cells that launch missiles into Israel from Syria have the support of Iran.
The congressman went on to say a direct strike against Iran should not be the first option but should also not be off the table. One thing Republicans and Democrats can agree on is that the status quo is not working.
How this president and possibly the next president handles these tensions with leadership in Tehran will largely dictate the landscape of the Middle East.
This weekend was a sore reminder for many of us, however, that freedom is not free and war is not game theory. Each choice has consequences. Human lives are always on the line. The families of Sgt. William Rivers, Sgt. Kennedy Sanders, and Sgt. Breonna Moffett unfortunately know that all too well.
WATCH: U.S. Service Members Remembered
Here is more from the Department of Defense on the three soldiers whose lives were lost. (A quick note: Sanders and Moffett were promoted to the rank of Sgt. posthumously).
With so much attention focused on Iran and the U.S., here are a few things involving the war in Gaza you may have missed.
First, we do not appear to be very close to another hostage deal. Despite optimism spread from the State Department podium this week about progress, Qatar’s leadership says they are “hoping to relay this proposal to Hamas and to get them to a place where they engage positively and constructively in the process.”
All sides are talking about negotiating the framework of what a hostage release deal could look like. A four week cease-fire? Six weeks? Two months? Four months?
It doesn’t really matter. That’s not where the issue lies. It’s more fundamental than that.
Hamas wants a deal that will end the war and effectively give them the ability to come out on the other side of this alive with some ruling authority. Israel says under no circumstance will the war end before Hamas is destroyed. No matter how many summits take place in Europe or how many times Egypt and Qatar pick up the phone, that’s a pretty big gap to negotiate past.
Qatar says we are “closer” than we were a few weeks ago. That may very well be the case. But we’ve been told there’s been “progress” every week since the last pause in fighting fell apart and still over 130 hostages are being held inside Gaza.
The humanitarian situation inside the Gaza Strip is something critical to watch as well. The Israelis have been increasing the amount of aid going into Gaza upwards of 200 trucks a day — a far cry from where we were at the beginning of the war.
British Foreign Secretary David Cameron added some context here when he said the goal posts need to be moved, and 500 trucks a day needs to be the goal to sustain the more than 2 million people in Gaza.
Then there’s the issue of the UN agency that operates in Gaza: UNRWA. The organization, which has been operating since 1949 and plays a key role in humanitarian work in both Gaza and the West Bank, is coming under major fire from every Western country at the moment. An investigation is ongoing which contends some of their employees in Gaza took part in the Oct. 7 attack against Israel.
WATCH: UN relief agency staff accused of aiding Hamas attacks
The Israelis have been making this allegation for months. Clearly, the evidence Israel has now presented is credible enough for the US, UK, Germany, Austria and a host of other countries to cut off their funding to the group. UNRWA relies almost entirely on the voluntary funding they get from UN member states and says they won’t be able to operate past February unless it’s restored. How the UNRWA handles this investigation and how the world reacts will be crucial to watch.
Something else that happened this week: Check out this wild video out of the West Bank where an elite Israeli military unit infiltrated a hospital in Jenin disguised as doctors and civilian women to carry out a targeted raid. Three people were killed as a result — one with Hamas, two with the Palestinian Islamic Jihad according to the IDF. They had apparently been holed up in that hospital for months planning out a new attack against Israel.
This comes just weeks after a terrorist attack just outside Tel Aviv. The attackers came in from the West Bank as well.
A high ranking source of ours here in Israel with the IDF pulled me aside a week ago and issued a stern warning: “Watch the West Bank,” he said. Everyone’s focused on Gaza, but there’s a growing fear things will boil over there next.
If you had hoped things would be settling down here by spring, I wouldn’t bet on it.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily of NewsNation.