Chris Christie is out of the GOP race: Who benefits?

(NewsNation) — Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has dropped out of the Republican presidential race in a decision that could boost former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, particularly in New Hampshire.

Nationally, Christie was polling in fifth at 3%, but in the Granite State, he was faring much better, sitting in third at 12% behind Haley (31%) and front-runner Donald Trump (42%), according to polling from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ Election Center.

A new Emerson College poll of New Hampshire voters released Thursday showed Trump leading at 44% and Haley as a clear second with 28%. Among the 12% of Christie supporters, 52% named Haley as their second choice compared to just 2% backing Trump, the poll found.

With Christie’s departure, the math starts to look better for Haley, especially among New Hampshire voters who don’t affiliate with either party. Undeclared voters make up roughly 40% of those registered in the state and are allowed to vote in the primary.

Among undeclared voters who plan to participate, 43% support Haley, 23% backed Christie, and 17% support Trump, a recent University of New Hampshire poll found.

“Lots of polls, especially the ones in the Decision Desk HQ/The Hill polling average, show that Christie’s voters, should they not have Christie to vote for, do disperse primarily to Nikki Haley,” Scott Tranter, director of data science at Decision Desk HQ, said on NewsNation’s “On Balance” Wednesday.

The question is whether the potential boon to Haley will matter in the overall race.

“Some of [Christie’s] very few supporters will go to Nikki Haley, more than will go to DeSantis, so she’ll get a little bump up,” former Fox News anchor Bill O’Reilly told NewsNation’s Chris Cuomo Wednesday.

If Haley does beat the former president in New Hampshire, O’Reilly expects her to get a boost in the media and said the press will be able to frame Trump as a loser: “That’s what’s in play now.”

That momentum would be vital for Haley, who currently trails Trump by nearly 30 points in her home state of South Carolina. Consolidating Christie’s 4% support there won’t do much to close the gap, although, like New Hampshire, the presidential primary is open to all registered voters in South Carolina.

But even among independents, Trump continues to outperform his competitors.

Among independents who lean Republican, 54% plan to vote for Trump in their state’s primary compared to 15% for Haley, according to a recent Economist/YouGov poll. That same poll showed self-described moderates choosing Trump (46%) over Haley (20%).

In Iowa, where GOP caucusgoers will have their voices heard Monday, Trump leads by roughly 35 points, but Haley has passed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for second place, per The Hill/Decision Desk HQ Election Center.

Christie didn’t endorse anyone on his way out Wednesday but was caught on a hot mic saying Haley “is gonna get smoked.”

The last time he left a presidential race in 2016, Christie endorsed Trump, who eventually went on to win the White House.

Christie has since said he regrets the endorsement, even running a political ad saying he made a mistake.

Meanwhile, Haley does have the support of New Hampshire’s popular Republican governor, Chris Sununu, who continues to express confidence in his decision.

“You know why everyone’s going after Nikki? Because she’s the one that surging, because she’s the one that is likely going to win here in New Hampshire,” Sununu said in a recent NewsNation interview.