NewsNation Chief Washington Correspondent and The Hill on NewsNation moderator Blake Burman shares his political reporting and campaign viewpoints leading into the 2024 election.
How about these two numbers: -26 and 753. If you’re wondering what they have to do with each other, the answer is “a lot.” As I sit here and type this out, -26 is expected to be the feels-like temperature in Des Moines, Iowa later tonight. As for 753, welcome to the Iowa Caucuses…
How Does This Work?
There are 753 different caucus sites spread out across Iowa’s 99 counties. Some are held in schools and churches, with others held in homes; in 28 counties there is only one caucus location. Part of what makes this different is before voting even begins, representatives of the various candidates give speeches touting why they are voting for their favored candidate. After the speeches, many attendees vote on a blank piece of paper. There’s no early voting or mail-in ballots, either. The process begins tonight at 7p CT.
If you’ve ever voted in a more “traditional” setting, think about how different this is: You aren’t in private, being persuaded on site by your neighbors is encouraged, and there isn’t a structured ballot.
The Expectations Game
Here’s the reality going in to tonight: Polls show Donald Trump up big, Nikki Haley is climbing, and there are questions about Ron DeSantis’ path forward if he can’t close in on Trump. Despite a commanding lead in the polls, Trump’s team is trying to manage expectations. “The fact of the matter is a win is a win… No one has ever in the modern era for a contested primary contest going into caucus night actually won by more than 12 and no one has cracked 50%. So, we believe that we’re in very good shape with President Trump. We do believe that we’re going to win,” Jason Miller, a senior advisor to Trump, told us during “The HIll on NewsNation.”
A question to consider: If Trump is able to crack 50% in Iowa, and if Haley can’t win in New Hampshire on January 23rd, then will the race be unofficially over in eight days?
About the Weather
What exactly is “cold” can be different for everyone. My definition is this: Cold is when you can’t feel your ears. Iowa, tonight, will be way beyond that. In the last handful of days there have been cancelled campaign events all over the place as a result of the extreme weather and dangerous conditions. The Trump and DeSantis campaigns and Never Back Down, the super PAC backing DeSantis, all are making plans to help get caucus goers to their locations. The Trump campaign will have some 4-wheel vehicles deployed. “Our team is in constant contact with the committed to caucus goers in their community and will ensure can get out to caucus,” a Never Back Down official tells NewsNation. Caucus-goers can call their precinct captains, for example, who will arrange rides.
You could almost feel the chill the other day when Kelli Meyer joined us from Des Moines.
A question to consider: If the weather keeps some Iowans home, does that favor Trump (the former president with an enthusiastic base) or might that help DeSantis (his super PAC has poured tens of millions of dollars in to the state and should have a very organized ground game)?
By the Way: The Biden Campaign
Dan Kanninen, a former panelist on the show who is now in charge of battleground states for the Biden campaign, joined us on set one last time. We asked him about the map that shows Trump ahead of President Biden in six of the key seven swing states. He shot down the polling data this far out. “A year out they’re like weather reports. The closer you get there’s some instructive nature to them. At this point the head-to-head stuff is not really instructive, particlulary because most voters that we need to win over in this election and mobilize and persuade aren’t paying attention yet,” Kanninen says. The full interview is worth a watch:
A question to consider: If the map/numbers were flipped, how do you think Kanninen would have answered?
Happening on The Hill
Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., walked out of a classified briefing on UAPs (commonly known as UFOs) and told us he has lots of questions about the potentially billions of dollars spent by the U.S. government since 1947. I was fascinated throughout the entirety of our conversation.
Rep. Seth Moulton, D-Mass., an Iraq War veteran, told us if he was the commander-in-chief he would have fired Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin “in about five minutes” for not being forthright with his hospitalization and cancer diagnosis.
Reminder! Starting next Monday, The Hill will move to 6p ET.
Tune into “The Hill on NewsNation” weeknights at 5/4C on NewsNation. Find your channel here.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily of NewsNation.
