(NewsNation) — Though former President Donald Trump winning the Iowa caucuses, he only won by 51%, even though the state is a stronghold for his voter base.
Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has surged in New Hampshire in recent months and is now polling in second at 33%, according to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ. Trump remains in the lead at 41%.
Trump, having secured victory in 98 out of 99 counties in Iowa, narrowly missed a clean sweep by a single vote in a college town.
The Iowa caucuses, typically a stronghold for Trump given its rural demographic, high evangelical population and lower-than-average college education levels, reveal a significant shift in voter sentiment.
Decision Desk HQ estimated after 10 p.m. EST that there were 110,000 voters at the Iowa caucus. In comparison, more than 180,000 voted in 2016.
Erick Erickson, a prominent conservative commentator, points out a negative aspect of the numbers. While Trump seems to lead in most polls, there is a noticeable enthusiasm gap, as evidenced by the lower-than-expected voter turnout in Iowa.
“There were a lot of people, including Trump supporters, who didn’t want to brave that weather,” Erickson said. “I do think the base turned out and it is Donald Trump’s party.”
Erickson emphasizes that dismissing this enthusiasm gap would be a mistake and highlights challenges for Trump in suburban and college town precincts.
Erickson suggested that Trump’s perceived inevitability may have played a role in the low turnout, coupled with the collapse of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis‘ ground game in Iowa. Erickson noted that while Trump remains the dominant force in the party, he still faces challenges in certain demographics.
As the focus shifts to New Hampshire, where Haley is gaining momentum and has the resources to challenge Trump, Erickson believes it could become a two-person race if she secures a victory. The collapse of the DeSantis campaign would further strengthen Haley’s position as the primary challenger to Trump, he argued.
“[DeSantis] was not able to mobilize the people he expected to mobilize [in Iowa],” Erickson said.
Reflecting on Haley’s performance in Iowa, Erickson underscored that her rise has been impressive, and had it not been for a late poll, more attention would be on her upward trajectory.
“Nikki Haley is the only one left with money. She’s the only one left with an organization in New Hampshire that could possibly take [Trump] on, she’s gotten very close,” Erickson said.
Haley has a track record of defeating front-runners, as seen in her successful bid for governor in South Carolina.