(NewsNation) — Republican presidential candidates faced their first test of 2024 in Iowa on Monday. What happens from here? NewsNation political editor Chris Stirewalt says the outcome of the Iowa caucuses might get weird.
Stirewalt thinks voter turnout and the potential for Democratic voters to cross over could shake things up. He made his analysis before Decision Desk HQ called the Iowa race for former President Donald Trump.
“If the turnout is low and the race is relatively close, especially the race for second, if people come out to try to boost Nikki Haley to give Donald Trump trouble, if people are trying to throw roadblocks up for Donald Trump — in a lower turnout race, even a handful of party switchers who come in, can do it,” Stirewalt told NewsNation host Elizabeth Vargas.
He continued: “On the other hand, if you turn up the volume on everything, way, way up, and you get huge turnout comparatively like you did eight years ago — then that gets lost in the sauce. So, I think that in a lower turnout, small differences lead up to big things.”
Stirewalt said cold weather and the timing of the caucuses could also have impacted turnout.
“The Republicans have chosen to conduct this on a holiday, the third day of a holiday weekend. A lot of people leave town. A lot of people are getting back in town. A lot of people are out of cycle because of the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday,” Stirewalt said.
He added: “There has not been a day of serious cold for a caucus day since 2004, and this is colder than that.”
Former President Donald Trump has dominated the polls for weeks, though other candidates — former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson — have spent the last weeks braving the cold to court GOP voters.
Decision Desk HQ projects Trump as the winner of the Iowa Republican caucuses. The race for second place is currently neck and neck between DeSantis and Haley.