(NewsNation) — Former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in seven battleground states, but over half of swing-state voters would be unwilling to vote for Trump if he’s convicted of a crime, according to a new Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll.
The survey showed Trump ahead of Biden in a one-on-one matchup by an average of 48%-42% across Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
When other candidates like Robert F. Kennedy, Cornel West and Jill Stein were included, Trump’s lead over Biden grew to nine points, 44%-35%.
But that support changes when swing-state voters factored in the potential outcome of Trump’s criminal cases. More than half (53%) of those surveyed said they would be “somewhat” (7%) or “very” (46%) unwilling to vote for the former president in the 2024 general election if he’s convicted of a crime. That share jumps to 55% if Trump is sentenced to prison.
Among political moderates, 62% said they would be unwilling to back the former president if convicted. Roughly a quarter of conservatives said the same.
The findings suggest the timing and result of Trump’s criminal investigations could have a major impact on the 2024 election.
On specific issues, like immigration and the economy, the poll showed several vulnerabilities for Biden.
Most swing-state voters (61%) said Biden is at least somewhat responsible for the increase in migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border compared to just 29% who said the Trump administration bears responsibility.
More respondents (52%) said they trusted Trump than Biden (30%) to handle immigration.
When it comes to the economy, swing-state voters also preferred the former president, 51%-33%.
Recent indicators suggest Americans are starting to feel better about the economy, but the new survey paints a more complicated picture. A majority of swing-state voters (71%) think the country’s economy is on the wrong track, but at the local level, they’re more optimistic — 52% said their city’s economy is going in the right direction.
The poll surveyed 4,956 registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. It was conducted online from Jan. 16-22, 2024.