Trump leads Biden in polls; Biden losing support among key groups

(NewsNation) — Former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in the polls, holding steady with a four-point lead.

New Emerson College Polling data shows Trump leading 47% to Biden’s 43% in a hypothetical rematch at the ballot box. When third-party candidates are added to the ballot, Trump’s support falls to 42% and Biden’s to 36%.

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In a matchup between former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and Biden, the candidates tied with 38% of the votes each.

Democratic strategist Laura Fink said the results may serve as a wake-up call for Democrats.

“Certainly, Trump passing Biden in the overall number may be a shock to the system for that campaign,” she said.

Compared to a poll done at the same time in 2022, Biden has lost support among Black and Hispanic voters, college graduates, women and voters under 50.

“They need to collect their base. The numbers are weak,” Fink said of the Biden campaign. “Biden’s numbers are weak because he has lost key constituencies from his base.”

While most voters said they were very or somewhat excited about the upcoming presidential election, just 26% of voters under 30 said they were very excited. Minority voters were also less likely to describe themselves as excited about the race.

Biden’s job approval came in at 38%, with 50% of respondents saying they disproved of his performance and 37% of voters rating his handling of the Israel-Hamas war as poor.

Trump and Biden both fared well in their respective primaries, with Trump leading the GOP race at 64%, followed by Haley, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. Biden led his party with 66% of votes, followed by author Marianne Williamson and Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota.

For Democrats, Fink said there has been little awareness about some of Biden’s accomplishments, something the campaign would need to change before November 2024.

“He has to say, ‘Hey, you’re not voting in a vacuum here.’ What are President Trump’s plans for the future for the economy, for abortion rights, for the things that these voters have said that they care about,” Fink said.

When given a generic ballot, 44% of voters planned to vote Republican, with 43% saying they would vote Democrat. Voters said the top issue facing the country is the economy followed by immigration, threats to democracy, health care, crime, abortion access and education.