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Who do GOP candidates need to win over to catch up to Trump?

  • Donald Trump holds a sizeable lead over the rest of the GOP primary field
  • Some polls show Nikki Haley ahead of Trump among crucial swing voters
  • Trump and DeSantis are outperforming Haley among Republican primary voters

 

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(NewsNation) — As the Republican White House hopefuls prepare for the fourth presidential debate on Dec. 6 and the beginning of primary season in January, former President Donald Trump continues to maintain a wide lead over his GOP rivals.


Trump currently holds a commanding 48-point lead over his next closest opponent, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and many are wondering if the primary race is over before it’s even started.

Here’s who each candidate still needs to win over to earn the nomination.

Donald Trump

Current polling average: 62%

His Pitch: The front-runner for the GOP nomination seeking reelection.

His Policies: Take a look at where Trump stands on the issues that matter to voters.

Strengths: The former president continues to hold a sizeable lead, with his next closest competitor, DeSantis, showing an inability to close a gap that has grown to 48 points over the past few months.

Trump’s margin remains fairly stable across several GOP voting blocs, including men and women, those who make over and under $50,000 and Republican primary voters under 65, a recent Fox News poll found.

Weaknesses: Trump remains a divisive figure at the national level, and it’s not clear he’s the candidate who gives Republicans the best chance of defeating incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden, whom he lost to in 2020.

In a head-to-head matchup with the current president, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and DeSantis both outperform Trump among independents, suburban women and white college graduates, the Fox News poll showed. All three groups represent swing voters who could ultimately decide the next election.

Over half of registered voters (52%) recently surveyed by NBC News said they had a negative view of Trump compared with 36% who viewed him positively.

Ron DeSantis

Current polling average: 14%

His Pitch: The most popular candidate not named Donald Trump.

His Policies: Take a look at where DeSantis stands on the issues that matter to voters.

Strengths: DeSantis has maintained his position as the second choice, although the gap between him and Trump has widened over the past year, and Haley has, in recent polls, started closing in on the second spot. Even then, if the former president’s popularity were to waver, polls suggest DeSantis would be next up.

In a head-to-head with Biden, DeSantis and Trump are roughly tied, although the Florida governor is slightly more popular than Trump among three key demos: independents, white college graduates and suburban voters, per the Fox News poll.

DeSantis also has the endorsement of Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds and evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats, a state where he’s hoping to get off to a strong start.

Weaknesses: DeSantis hasn’t done enough to differentiate himself from the former president; in fact, his numbers have gotten worse since entering the race.

Polling suggests DeSantis has a likeability problem. The governor came in third behind Haley and Trump on favorability in the NBC News poll. Just 27% of those surveyed had a positive view of DeSantis compared to 47% who had a negative view.

Trump currently holds a 37-point lead over DeSantis in Florida, a state the governor won handily in 2022.

Nikki Haley

Current polling average: 10%

Her Pitch: Republicans’ best chance at defeating Biden in the general election.

Her Policies: Take a look at where Haley stands on the issues that matter to voters.

Strengths: In a head-to-head matchup against Biden, Haley outperformed both Trump and DeSantis, according to the Fox News poll. Key demos — suburban women, white college graduates, moderates and independents — all backed Haley at higher rates versus Biden compared to Trump and DeSantis.

A recent Harvard-Harris poll of registered voters also showed Haley with the highest net favorability of all the GOP candidates.

Weaknesses: Haley’s performance among swing voters won’t matter if she can’t get to the general election. Among GOP primary voters, Haley trails Trump and DeSantis, even among Republican women and those with a college degree.

When Trump is excluded, DeSantis still leads Haley among GOP women, 35% to 20%, the Fox News poll found.

Vivek Ramaswamy

Current polling average: 5%

His Pitch: A young, political outsider to lead the GOP into the future.

His Policies: See where Ramaswamy stands on the issues that matter to voters

Strengths: Among GOP primary voters under age 45, Ramaswamy is polling in second, tied with DeSantis at 9%, according to the Fox News poll.

Ramaswamy also bests Haley among 18- to 29-year-olds when it comes to favorability, a poll from The Economist/YouGov found.

Weaknesses: Ramaswamy has been trending in the wrong direction in recent months. After polling as high as 11% nationally in August, the biotech entrepreneur has since dropped to fourth place with 5%.

Even among Asian voters, Ramaswamy, an Indian American, has struggled to break through. Nearly half of Asian Americans surveyed by AAPI Data and The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research in October said they didn’t know enough about Ramaswamy to have an opinion on him. Among those who did, 36% had an unfavorable view compared to 18% who viewed him favorably.

Chris Christie

Current polling average: 2%

His Pitch: The most vocal critic of Donald Trump.

Strengths: The former governor of New Jersey is currently polling third in New Hampshire, ahead of DeSantis and Ramaswamy. Among moderates, Christie is viewed more favorably than any other candidate. Younger voters ages 18 to 29 view Christie more favorably than Ramaswamy and Haley.

Weaknesses: Christie is the only major GOP candidate who’s viewed more favorably by Democrats than members of his own party, according to The Economist/YouGov survey. That doesn’t bode well for his chances of winning the GOP nomination.

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