Decision Desk HQ: Dems make gains in struggle for Congress

(NewsNation) — Democrats make projected gains in the struggle for control in Congress, according to the latest forecasting model by Decision Desk HQ.

According to Decision Desk HQ’s election model, Democrats have a 65% (+1.5) chance of maintaining control of the Senate.

Democrats hope they can retain their majority. It is the first time that a 50-50 Senate has been controlled by Democrats with a vote from the vice president acting as a tie-breaker.

The Senate model has moved +4.5% Democrat over the last month.

But Republicans only need to win one Senate seat overall to take that majority control away.

And while Republicans are likely to retake control of the House, those numbers have narrowed.

Projections by Decision Desk show the GOP’s chance of retaking control of the House is 77.7% (-2.1).

The House model has moved +8.7% Democrat over the last month.

According to Kiel Williams, senior data scientist with Decision Desk, the projected majority for Republicans in the House has declined.

“Our projected majority for Republicans in the House is something like 20 seats,” he said. “If you look back in July, we had Republicans with something like a 40-seat majority, and that’s now been cut in half. And so what we’ve seen today is odds of a Republican House majority remaining above 50%. But declining precipitously over time.”

With the 2022 midterm elections less than two months away, Democrats are riding high after a spate of special election wins and improved polling results.

According to Williams, a number of new polls that reflect an improved environment for Democrats contributed to the change in their forecasting model.

“We’re tending to see these high-quality polls like New York Times/Siena go more and more in a direction that sort of indicates the environments are better for Democrats,” Williams said.

In two new New York Times/Siena polls, Democrats were favored by likely and registered voters.

“We’re seeing more and more data come in to tell us that the environment is becoming more favorable for Democrats than we normally might expect a party to experience during a midterm when their party controls the White House,” Williams said.

In a new CBS News/New York Times/YouGov poll Wednesday, Georgia incumbent Democrat Sen. Raphael Warnock was seen in a more favorable light than Republican candidate Hershel Walker.

Timely results of the poll contributed to a change in the Decision Desk HQ forecast amid an already tight race, pushing the seat from “toss-up” to “lean Democrat.”

“That’s really important in the Senate in particular,” Williams said. “There are only 100 seats in the Senate. And really, there are only four or five that I would say are really seriously competitive this year. So to have one poll push one of those key seats that we know is going to be really competitive in a more Democratic direction is something our model really hears.”

Decision Desk HQ conducts a monthly poll on behalf of NewsNation that looks at topics ranging from President Joe Biden’s job approval to rising education costs.

The Hill contributed to this report.