Retiring Dems could cause power shift in Congress

(The Hill) — Dozens of lawmakers have announced they won’t seek reelection in 2022, in what’s expected to be a tough year for Democrats trying to keep their narrow majorities in both chambers of Congress.

Several House members are seeking other offices, such as in the Senate or their state’s governorships. But other lawmakers are citing decennial redistricting and the increasingly toxic environment in Congress in the aftermath of the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol as they head for the exits.

“At a time when our politics have become so divisive and dangerous, my greatest hope for my colleagues is that they… stop the name-calling, saber-rattling and the disinformation, and to listen to one another,” said Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-Fla).

And Rep. Ron Kind (D-Wis.) said, “The goal is just to destroy people on the other side. And unfortunately, we’re seeing too many of those in public service today.”

Republicans only need to flip five seats to win the House majority in the 2022 midterms.

So far, 23 House Democrats have indicated they aren’t running for reelection, along with 13 House Republicans and we’re only halfway through this congressional session.

Across the Capitol, just six senators have said they aren’t running for reelection in 2022: Sens. Richard Burr (R-N.C.), Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), Rob Portman (R-Ohio), Richard Shelby (R-Ala.), Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) and Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.).

And there’s still speculation about Speaker Nancy Pelosi, as this may be her last year in the House after nearly 30 years.

Here’s a running list of which lawmakers won’t be seeking reelection:

DEMOCRATS

1. Ann Kirkpatrick (Ariz.)

Kirkpatrick, 71, announced in March 2021 that she wouldn’t seek another term representing her Tucson-area seat. Kirkpatrick told The Arizona Republic that she is “sort of term-limiting myself” and wanted to spend more time with family. She had taken a leave of absence from the House the year before to recover from alcoholism, but denied that played a role in her decision.

2. Filemon Vela (Texas)

Vela, 58, said in March 2021 that he won’t seek reelection after serving in the House since 2013. Vela’s district had been considered a Democratic stronghold, but it has been increasingly targeted by Republicans. It had swung at the presidential level from Hillary Clinton carrying it by 22 points in 2016 to President Biden winning by 4 points. Vela himself won reelection in 2020 by 14 points. The redistricting process further gave Republicans an opportunity to redraw the district along the U.S.-Mexico border so that it could be more competitive.

3. Cheri Bustos (Ill.)

Bustos, 60, announced in April 2021 that she will retire from Congress, after leading the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee during the 2020 election cycle where Republicans ultimately gained seats. Bustos herself only narrowly won reelection by about 4 points in a competitive district that former President Trump had carried. By contrast, Bustos had won reelection in 2018 by nearly 25 points.

4. Tim Ryan (Ohio)

Ryan, 48, formally launched a campaign in April 2021 to run for the open Senate seat that will be vacated by Portman’s retirement. Ryan was first elected to the House in 2002 and currently chairs a House Appropriations subcommittee with jurisdiction over legislative branch spending, where he has made efforts to investigate the Capitol Police’s handling of Jan. 6.

5. Charlie Crist (Fla.)

Crist, 65, announced in May 2021 that he is running to serve again as Florida governor, marking his third gubernatorial run since 2006. The Republican-turned-Democrat was first elected to the House in 2016.

6. Val Demings (Fla.)

Demings, 64, launched her campaign to challenge Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) in June 2021. Demings, a former Orlando police chief, has become a rising star in the Democratic Party. She was on President Biden’s shortlist of potential running mates in 2020 and later served as one of the House prosecutors during Trump’s impeachment trial after Jan. 6.

7. Conor Lamb (Pa.)

Lamb, 37, announced in August 2021 that he is running for the open Senate seat in his state. Lamb had only narrowly defeated his GOP challenger by just over 2 points in 2020, after he won a special election in 2018 to represent a district that had been held by a Republican.

8. Ron Kind (Wis.)

Kind, 58, one of only seven Democrats representing a district carried by Trump in 2020, said in August 2021 that he wouldn’t seek reelection. He only narrowly won reelection with 51 percent of the vote in 2020, compared to when he won reelection by nearly 20 points in 2018.

9. Karen Bass (Calif.)

Bass, 68, a former chairwoman of the Congressional Black Caucus, launched her campaign for Los Angeles mayor in September 2021.

10. John Yarmuth (Ky.)

Yarmuth, 74, the House Budget Committee chairman who was closely involved in Democrats’ crafting of the social spending package, announced in October 2021 that he will retire after serving in the chamber since 2007.

11. David Price (N.C.)

Price, 81, who has been in office since 1997 as well as from 1987 to 1995, announced in October 2021 that he won’t seek another term. He currently chairs a House Appropriations subcommittee with oversight of the departments of Transportation and Housing and Urban Development.

12. Mike Doyle (Pa.)

Doyle, 68, said in October 2021 that after serving in the House since 1995, “I believe the time has come to pass the torch to the next generation.” He cited discussions with his wife about “how we want to spend our retirement together now that our family is grown” and redistricting that will likely change his Pittsburgh-based district’s boundaries.

13. Anthony Brown (Md.)

Brown, 60, who has served in the House since 2017, launched a campaign in October 2021 to serve as Maryland attorney general.

14. Jackie Speier (Calif.)

Speier, 71, a co-chair of the Democratic Women’s Caucus, announced in November 2021 that she won’t seek reelection after serving in the House since 2008. “It’s time for me to come home,” Speier said in a video announcing her decision. “Time for me to be more than a weekend wife, mother and friend.”

15. G.K. Butterfield (N.C.)

Butterfield, 74, who has served in the House since 2004, cited a “racially gerrymandered” map drawn by North Carolina’s GOP-led legislature as a factor in his decision in November 2021 not to run for reelection.

16. Peter Welch (Vt.)

Following Leahy’s retirement announcement, Welch, 74, launched a campaign in November 2021 to succeed him. Welch has represented the state in the House since 2007.

17. Eddie Bernice Johnson (Texas)

Johnson, 86, the first Black woman to chair the House Science, Space and Technology Committee, announced in November 2021 that she wouldn’t seek reelection after serving in Congress since 1993.

18. Tom Suozzi (N.Y.)

Suozzi, 59, launched a campaign for New York governor in November 2021 as a “common sense Democrat.” Suozzi’s Long Island-based district backed Biden by 10 points in 2020, but Democrats have faced surprising losses in local elections in the region in 2021.

19. Peter DeFazio (Ore.)

The 74-year-old chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure announced in December 2021 that his 18th term in Congress would be his last. DeFazio’s district had become more competitive in recent years, but redrawn lines approved by state lawmakers that made it more safely Democratic led him to feel more comfortable retiring. DeFazio said that “I would have felt more obligation to run again” if his district had remained as much of a potential swing seat after redistricting, according to Oregon Public Broadcasting.

20. Alan Lowenthal (Calif.)

Lowenthal, 80, said in December 2021 that he wants to spend more time with family after serving in the House since 2013. He has represented a safe Democratic district based in Long Beach, but as of his retirement announcement, California had yet to finalize its new congressional map.

21. Stephanie Murphy (Fla.)

Murphy, 43, an influential leader of the Blue Dog Coalition and first Vietnamese American woman elected to Congress, announced in December 2021 that she wouldn’t run again after originally unseating a longtime GOP incumbent in 2016. Murphy said she wanted to spend more time with her family but didn’t rule out another future role in public service. “Several years ago, I departed public service by leaving the Pentagon and moving to Central Florida to start my family. I knew then I wasn’t done with public service, just as I know now I am not done with public service,” she said in her video announcement.

22. Albio Sires (N.J.)

Sires, 70, who has served in the House since 2006, told the New Jersey Globe that a formal retirement announcement is expected before year’s end. Sires represents a safe Democratic district that Biden won handily in 2020.

23. Lucille Roybal-Allard (Calif.)

The Hill first reported in December 2021 that Roybal-Allard, 80, the chairwoman of a House Appropriations subcommittee overseeing immigration issues, is not planning to seek reelection. Roybal-Allard told the Los Angeles Times in November that she was unhappy with the state redistricting commission’s proposed map out of concerns it doesn’t ensure adequate Hispanic representation.

REPUBLICANS

1. Tom Reed (N.Y.)

Reed, 50, announced in March 2021 that he would not run for reelection after he was accused of sexual misconduct years before. He also stepped down as co-chair of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus. Reed apologized to his family and to the woman who accused him of misconduct, and said he planned “to dedicate my time and attention to making amends for my past actions.”

2. Jody Hice (Ga.)

Hice, 61, launched a primary challenge in March 2021 to unseat Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensberger, who defied Trump’s demand to “find” enough votes to overturn the state’s presidential election results in 2020. Trump has endorsed Hice, who has echoed the former president’s false claims of election irregularities.

3. Mo Brooks (Ala.)

Brooks, 67, is running for the open Senate seat that Shelby is vacating. Brooks, who has served in the House since 2011, led the effort in that chamber to challenge the presidential election results on Jan. 6.

4. Lee Zeldin (N.Y.)

Zeldin, 41, who has represented a Long Island-based district since 2015, announced in April 2021 that he would run for New York governor.

5. Kevin Brady (Texas)

Brady, 66, is term-limited as the top Republican on the House Ways and Means Committee under internal GOP conference rules and announced in April 2021 that he wouldn’t run for reelection. He previously served as the committee’s chairman from 2015 to 2019, including while Republicans enacted their 2017 tax overhaul during the Trump administration.

6. Steve Stivers (Ohio)

Stivers, 56, resigned from the House in May 2021 to take a job leading the Ohio Chamber of Commerce. He previously served as chairman of the House GOP campaign arm in the 2018 cycle, in which the party lost control of the chamber.

7. Ted Budd (N.C.)

Budd, 50, who has served in the House since 2017, announced in April 2021 that he is running for the Senate.

8. Vicky Hartzler (Mo.)

Hartzler, 61, announced in June 2021 that she is running for Senate to fill Blunt’s seat.

9. Billy Long (Mo.)

Long, 66, launched his Senate campaign in August 2021, joining a crowded field of candidates.

10. Anthony Gonzalez (Ohio)

Gonzalez, 37, was one of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump in the aftermath of the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. His state’s party committee subsequently voted to censure him and Trump endorsed a primary challenger. In September 2021, Gonzalez cited “the current state of our politics, especially many of the toxic dynamics inside our own party” as “a significant factor” in his decision not to seek reelection.

11. Adam Kinzinger (Ill.)

Kinzinger, 43, another House Republican who voted to impeach Trump, has become one of his party’s most vocal critics for continuing to embrace the former president. Aside from the prospect of a primary challenge, Kinzinger also faced tough odds for reelection because of redistricting. In a video announcing his decision in October 2021 not to run for reelection, Kinzinger lamented the rise of political tribalism and how “our political parties only survive by appealing to the most motivated and the most extreme elements within it.”

12. Louie Gohmert (Texas)

Gohmert, 68, a former judge, announced in November 2021 that he is running for Texas attorney general, joining a crowded GOP primary.

13. Devin Nunes (Calif.)

Nunes, 48, announced in December that he would step down at the end of 2021 — a year before the end of his term — to serve as CEO of Trump’s new media company. Nunes had served as the top Republican on the House Intelligence Committee since 2015 and was in line to succeed Brady to helm the Ways and Means panel had he remained for another term in the House.