Five things to watch during the Iowa GOP caucuses
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All eyes are turning to the Hawkeye State on Monday as it holds the first early nominating contest in the Republican presidential primary.
Former President Trump is anticipated to handily win Iowa, though Republicans will be watching to see how well Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley perform — and whether it offers either a jolt heading into the New Hampshire GOP primary.
Here are five things to watch for during the Iowa caucuses:
Does Trump deliver a knockout blow?
One of the things observers will be watching for is how well Trump will perform. A polling average of Iowa surveys compiled by Decision Desk HQ and The Hill shows the former president widely leading his rivals — sitting at 54 percent while Haley sits at 17 percent and DeSantis sits around 16 percent.
“If Trump wins with more than 50% of the vote, it’s difficult to argue that any ‘Trump alternative’ candidate has a clear path to victory,” Michael Zona, a former aide to Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) who worked on Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R-Fla.) 2016 campaign, said in an email.
“A resounding Trump victory in Iowa will deflate the momentum of competing candidates going into the remaining early states. But if Trump underperforms, other candidates will argue that proves there’s an appetite in the party for alternatives,” he added.
Though Trump won the 2016 GOP nomination and later the presidency, he placed second behind Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) in Iowa that cycle. Evangelical Christians compromise a critical voting bloc within the Iowa GOP caucus, and Trump received 12 percent less support than Cruz from born-again and evangelical Christians in Iowa. But a poll from NBC News, the Des Moines Register and Medicom last month shows that the tides have changed, with Trump receiving 51 percent support from those groups.
How close does second place come in?
Observers are also watching to see what kind of margin DeSantis or Haley pulls off. Iowa GOP strategist David Kochel said that Trump would be “underperforming” if he “doesn’t win by at least 30 points.”
“This is a state where the party right now is dominated by Christian conservatives, and they are backing Trump, right?” Kochel said. “He’s delivered for them with the Supreme Court appointments, and they are committed to him.”
DeSantis has largely focused his attention on the Hawkeye State, though recent polling has shown Haley could pull off a second-place finish. An Iowa State University/Civiqs poll released on Thursday showed Trump as the top choice for 55 percent of likely caucus-goers, while Haley and DeSantis each received 14 percent.
New Hampshire-based Republican strategist Matthew Bartlett said the margin between Trump and his rivals in Iowa will act as “a measurement of the former president’s strength, it is something of a stress test with the Trump campaign.”
How does it position Haley and DeSantis heading into New Hampshire?
DeSantis will be facing pressure to have a strong performance in Iowa, which could offer him another jolt of momentum ahead of the next immediate early-voting contest, in New Hampshire. But Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center and a professor of practice in political science at the university, suggested that Iowa’s caucus will have little impact on how New Hampshire voters cast their ballots.
He said that if DeSantis somehow trails Trump by single digits in Iowa, “his campaign might get a breath of life here in New Hampshire,” though polls show the Florida governor faces a tough climb in both states.
A University of New Hampshire Survey Center Granite Poll released on Tuesday showed Trump at 39 percent, Haley at 32 percent and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, before he dropped out, at 12 percent. Meanwhile, an Emerson College Polling/WHDH New Hampshire survey out on Thursday had Trump at 44 percent while Haley sat at 28 percent.
“The question is really does DeSantis drop out? I think that’s the only big question that’s gonna be answered,” Smith said of the Iowa caucus, adding, “I don’t think he’s gonna win, but if he finishes a distant third, he’s gonna drop out. I mean, he has nowhere to go after that.”
Bartlett, the New Hampshire GOP strategist, suggested that if DeSantis was just points below Trump or even ahead of him in Iowa, “that could absolutely alter the state of the race.”
But he noted that a strong performance in Iowa doesn’t always equate to a good night in New Hampshire, pointing to then-Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry winning Iowa and later New Hampshire in 2004, while former President Obama won Iowa but later lost New Hampshire in 2008.
How does weather impact turnout?
Iowans are bracing for freezing temperatures on Monday. The Weather Channel’s forecast for Monday in Des Moines, as of Friday afternoon, was a high of –3 degrees and a low of –14 degrees with 15mph winds.
Conditions leading up to Monday’s caucuses showed challenging driving conditions. The National Weather Service Des Moines on Friday wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter, that it would continue snowing “with additional accumulations of 3-6 inches expected over central Iowa” and that “will be accompanied by blowing snow as winds continue to increase, especially this afternoon to evening” on Friday.
Experts say it’s not clear how Monday’s weather in the Hawkeye State could impact the caucus.
Kochel, the Iowa GOP strategist, explained that while Trump’s supporters are “enthusiastic in supporting him,” those supporters are also a little older “and that might make travel the hardest.” Still, Kochel expected Trump to fare well.
“If DeSantis’s people are starting to waffle on him, right, and are starting to have second thoughts about DeSantis even if they don’t say, ‘Okay, I guess I’m going to, you know, support the governor’ or ‘I’m gonna switch,’ … they’re the ones that may just stay home,” Kochel explained.
Tim Hagle, an associate professor of political science at the University of Iowa, also said it was unclear how the weather could play into the caucus results, but he suggested DeSantis might be impacted less negatively than Trump or Haley, pointing to the campaigns’ ground games.
“Now we know that Trump has a very enthusiastic base, but he also has a number of supporters that are kind of a little more marginal,” Hagle said. He latter added that “here, it’s not so much that they would go to [DeSantis], but they wouldn’t turn up — some of the Trump supporters — if they’re a little bit more marginal, or if they think that [Trump’s] just so far ahead that it doesn’t matter.”
Does the caucus go off without a hitch?
Aside from challenging weather conditions, experts don’t anticipate too many other variables that could complicate delaying posting the results of the caucus.
That would be a stark contrast from last presidential cycle when an app used to have the Democrats’ caucus results tabulated experienced glitches, delaying when the party learned which candidate won in Iowa.
“Republicans have sort of learned from the mistakes of the Democrats and weren’t liable to commit those same mistakes anyway, so they should be in good shape unless — unless — the weather somehow affects the ability to report. You know, if lines are down or something like that,” said Hagle, the Iowa professor.