(NewsNation) — The election of Claudia Sheinbaum as the first female president in Mexico’s 200-year history signals a major political and cultural shift, but many pundits fear nothing will change when it comes to Mexican leadership’s ability to deal with powerful organized criminal organizations.
Sheinbaum will take office Oct. 1, replacing outgoing president Andrés Manuel López Obrador, whose “hugs not bullets” approach to dealing with Mexico’s drug cartels was often viewed as being largely ineffective.
Although Sheinbaum ran on a platform of tackling important economic and environmental issues, the 61-year-old climate scientist and former Mexico City mayor’s commitment to not stray from her predecessor’s playbook suggests to some the cartels may be able to maintain control of many aspects of Mexican life.
Gladys McCormick, a Syracuse University associate professor who specializes in U.S.-Mexico relations, said because cartels have become so much more dangerous and diversified than when Obrador took office in 2018, Sheinbaum faces a much bigger obstacle in challenging the cartels’ authority.
McCormick told NewsNation that because of Sheinbaum’s loyalty to López Obrador, the incoming president’s effectiveness in dealing with security issues linked to cartel organizations may be limited. While López Obrador’s popularity allowed him to thrive politically, Sheinbaum will need to cope with the same issues facing Mexico’s residents but in her own way.
“When she comes in, she is inheriting this mess, but she doesn’t necessarily have the charisma that (López Obrador) does,” McCormick said. “So it’s going to be a tall ask.”
Mexico drug cartels’ diversity
McCormick said issues involving the cartels have worsened considerably in recent years due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the influx of synthetic drugs like fentanyl and methamphetamine. Both forced Mexican organized crime organizations to shift their bottom line away from traditional drugs like cocaine and diversify their operations to the point where they have become similar to multinational corporations.
While the cartels are mainly known in the United States for their trafficking of drugs and humans, the criminal organizations deal in violence, extortion and kidnapping in Mexico. Cartels have taken control of an array of business operations, such as the country’s tortilla industry, and have used violence to influence and make inroads on Mexico’s political scene, cartel experts say.
At one time, there were between six and eight main cartels operating within the country, McCormick said. But now, that number has grown to 12-14 main players, around 25 medium-sized organizations and anywhere between 200-400 smaller cartels doing business around Mexico.
Between the sheer number of cartels and the power they wield, containing cartels’ influence has become almost impossible for those in power at the state and federal levels, NewsNation contributor and former law enforcement officer Robert Almonte said.
“The bottom line is that Mexican cartels control Mexico,” Almonte told NewsNation.
Almonte says because the cartels have been able to corrupt so many levels of government in Mexico, even the highest levels of authority have limited power in trying to curtail the cartels’ ability to operate as they wish.
McCormick agrees, saying that on Mexico’s political landscape, a consensus exists that to be successful politically, one must get their hands dirty with the cartels. The cooperation between the cartels and elected officials has allowed the powerful criminal organizations to be able to continue to wield power.
That has made who is in leadership a nonfactor for cartel leadership, Almonte said.
Yet because of López Obrador’s hands-off approach that Sheinbaum has vowed to continue once she takes office, some published reports say that the government’s inability to control the cartels’ influence around the country and in the U.S. will go unchanged.
Because Sheinbaum has aligned herself so closely with López Obrador, Almonte, a former U.S. marshal and deputy chief with the El Paso Police Department, does not expect to see anything change. In some opinion pieces, certain newsgroups have maintained that Sheinbaum’s victory is, in essence, a victory for organized crime.
Almonte and McCormick believe that, in many respects, the cartels will continue operating in a business-as-usual manner.
“If anything, I think you’re going to see the cartels even more emboldened,” Almonte told NewsNation.
The cartels’ root issues
Because the cartels have been able to influence so many levels of Mexican politics and daily life, formulating a strategy to deal with the multifaceted criminal organizations becomes even more difficult, Almonte said.
The cartels use threats of violence against politicians and political candidates to maintain power. In the past month, gunmen that have been apparently linked to the cartels shot and killed 11 people in Chicomuselo.
Three days later, five people were killed along with a mayoral candidate when gunmen fired on an open crowd in La Concordia, Chiapas. This year alone, 31 candidates, most of whom are running for mayor of communities, have been killed, the Associated Press reported.
Security analysts told the AP that they believed cartel leaders rallied their support bases during Sunday’s presidential election, which Sheinbaum won by capturing between 58% and 62% of the vote.
McCormick, the Syracuse professor, said the issue of security has risen to the top of voters’ priorities. McCormick said Sheinbaum must pay attention to this as she prepares to take office.
But Sheinbaum is tasked with taking over from López Obrador, who made a series of campaign promises to deal with violence and security issues but then never put policies in place to tackle both problems, McCormick said.
Sheinbaum will likely be granted a “short-term safety net” in tackling important issues, McCormick said. Because a president’s term in Mexico lasts six years rather than four in the U.S., the incoming president will likely be shown grace by voters for perhaps a year or 18 months.
But after that time, McCormick predicts people will be a lot less likely to cut Sheinbaum much slack. During his presidency, López Obrador used a strategy of distraction to shift attention away from the cartels’ power.
But even though she will attempt to follow a similar roadmap of misdirection including a looming U.S. presidential election in which the border will be a key issue, Sheinbaum will have to address the cartel issues without, perhaps, addressing them head-on, McCormick said.
“There is no easy solution here,” she said.