EL PASO, Texas (Border Report) – Mexico’s opposition candidates on Thursday wrapped up the “warm up” phase of the presidential race by zeroing in on the ruling party’s public safety failures.
Xochitl Galvez Ruiz in Guanajuato and Jorge Alvarez Maynez in Monterrey promised supporters at rallies they would not let organized criminal gangs continue running rampant in Mexico.
“The sitting president decided to give hugs to criminals and bullets to the citizens. The sitting president refused to confront criminals [….] But that will end. You can be certain I will fight criminals,” said Galvez, candidate of a three-party, right-of-center coalition called FAM.
She was referring to President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s claim five years ago he would bring down crime by de-escalating a drug war that brought unprecedented violence to Mexico in the mid-2000s. But she and a growing number of Mexican politicians said his “hugs, not bullets” strategy handed the streets to the cartels and resulted in a record number of homicides.
“Enough of people being afraid. Enough of people always being worried about not knowing what will happen to their lives, their property, their freedom. Enough of this country being a hell for women,” added Alvarez, the candidate of independent Movimiento Ciudadano. “Mexico deserves to be a country with justice. Whatever the cost, we will confront this problem. We will take this country from the hands of the criminals. In this new Mexico, there will be no (cartel) tax.”
The so-called cartel tax, or floor fees, is what criminal groups charge avocado growers, farmers, ranchers, professionals and small businesspeople in certain regions of Mexico to operate. Not paying may lead to robberies, vandalism, assaults, kidnappings or murder.
The National Elections Institute (INE) is banning political ads, debates, indoor assemblies, endorsements, and all public acts by candidates for the next six weeks. It’s a pause designed to let political parties finalize who their candidates will be. This is a moot point in the presidential election, as each party and coalition has only one candidate running.
Campaigns resume March 1, with federal elections taking place on June 2, according to the INE schedule.
The opposition is in an uphill fight against Lopez Obrador and his “handpicked successor,” as some U.S. experts are calling SHH coalition candidate Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo.
“Sheinbaum, the handpicked successor of Lopez Obrador, is ahead in the polls, although Galvez has been catching up bit by bit while Sheinbaum has essentially stalled around 40-41% or so,” said Tony Payan, director of the Center for the U.S. and Mexico at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. “That will mean the race will be a lot closer than we think.”
The center recently released its Mexico Country Outlook 2024, raising concerns about organized crime threatening or attempting to coerce candidates for local, state and federal public office. Payan also said Lopez Obrador and the 23 governors from his Morena Party “are going to make every effort in their power to push the official candidate, Claudia Sheinbaum. There are already allegations of electoral corruption in Mexico.”
He said political violence is likely.
“I think a lot of candidates and potential candidates are likely to be assassinated or their lives attempted on. This is a scenario that already showed up in Mexico in 2018 and 2021, and I think 2024 will be just that kind of year,” Payan said.
Sheinbaum wrapped up her so-called “pre-campaign” before thousands of people Thursday in Mexico City. She only briefly touched on crime but stressed nationalistic themes.
“It’s about the state having the fundamental role in the life of the nation under this system of free trade, that we don’t leave everything up to the market, that we don’t give up on building a true welfare state that guarantees security, peace, sovereignty and prosperity,” she said at her closing rally. “(We should) strengthen energy and food production sovereignty, enhance democracy and liberties and stop working for the macro-economic indicators and instead work so Mexico is a leader in welfare and sustainability.”
She said her country should turn its back on “greed” as it seeks to grow economically and exulted Lopez Obrador for bringing about a “radical change” to Mexico in just five years and said she could continue the “transformation.”
None of the presidential hopefuls spoke at any length about the record mass unauthorized migration passing through their country in the past three years on its way to the United States.
Mexican citizens living abroad who have procured a valid voter ID can participate in the presidential election remotely.