(NewsNation) — The pandemic-era policy known as Title 42 is set to expire on Thursday night and an estimated 150,000 people are waiting in northern Mexican states to cross into the U.S.
For more than three years, Title 42 has allowed U.S. border officials to immediately expel hundreds of thousands of migrants on public health grounds. Now that the policy is ending, many migrants see an opportunity to seek asylum.
In an effort to slow the influx, the Biden administration announced this week it will begin denying asylum to those who don’t apply online or seek protection in a country they passed through.
Here’s what we know about the surge at the southern border so far.
How many migrants are waiting in Mexico?
An estimated 150,000 migrants are waiting to cross the U.S.-Mexico border, according to data gathered by NewsNation. Many are currently camping out in tents and large cardboard boxes throughout Mexico’s northern border states.
Sources at the Department of Homeland Security told NewsNation they estimate an additional 600,000 migrants are waiting inside Mexico — away from the border — and could be headed to the U.S.
Other Central American countries — which migrants often pass through en route to the United States — have seen encounters rise, sources say. Panama, for example, has already reached its migrant encounter total for all of last year.
How many migrants are in custody?
As of Thursday morning, U.S. Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) had more than 27,000 migrants in custody, according to sources at DHS. The recent surge has already overwhelmed processing centers at six of the nine sectors along the southwest border.
Border towns like El Paso have declared states of emergency and are bracing for as many as 12,000 new arrivals once Title 42 ends. That sector alone currently has more than 6,000 migrants in CBP custody, according to the city’s migrant data dashboard.
On Wednesday, the Rio Grande Valley sector had more than 7,500 migrants in custody waiting to be processed. In response, CBP pulled all agents from the field to help with transportation and processing.
How many migrants have already crossed?
Over the past three days, migrant apprehensions along the southern border have skyrocketed to more than 30,000, according to DHS sources. The 10,000 daily apprehensions mark a 60% increase from the daily average in March, the most recent month of available data.
If the current rate continues, May could exceed the highest monthly total on record, when southern border officials recorded more than 250,000 migrant encounters in December.
Total encounter numbers do not include those who successfully evade border authorities. Border Patrol chief Raul Ortiz said an estimated 7,400 migrants got away over a three-day span last weekend.
U.S. authorities have said daily illegal crossings could climb as high as 13,000 when Title 42 ends.
The vast majority of those crossing, more than 70% in recent months, are single adults. Unaccompanied minors accounted for 7% of March Border Patrol apprehensions.