LOS ANGELES (NewsNation Now) — Signs of the horrible economy are evident in Southern California and across America. So the UCLA forecast of a new Roaring Twenties is welcome news, but a tough few months are still ahead.
According to UCLA’s Anderson Forecast, a robust economic recovery should begin right after that.
Economist Leo Feler of UCLA believes a new Roaring Twenties will parallel the last one. Just as it was in the Gilded Age, it won’t be a boom for all.
“Because we’re coming out of relatively such a deep hole, we’re going to be coming out relatively fast,” said Feler.
“It’s going to be a Roaring 2020s but for whom? And the answer is going to continue to be very unequal,” said Feler. “It’s going to take a while for unemployment to come down because we’ve decimated parts of our economy that are very labor intensive. That’s going to take a long time to recover.”
Feler’s latest UCLA Anderson forecast says a strong California recovery will be bolstered by sectors such as technology and residential construction.
Nationally, the forecast predicts the current dismal GDP rate of 1.2% will grow to 1.8% in the first quarter of next year. And then, America will see a booming jump to 6%.
“Thereafter, all the way through 2023, we’re forecasting growth of about 3% every single quarter. We haven’t had growth like that in really the past decade,” said Feler.
But the numbers are based on the mass vaccination of Americans against COVID-19 by next summer — a likelihood that may be hampered by availability and logistics.
And Feler stresses the outlook doesn’t reflect the economic misery of many. Though, in general, he says a depressing marathon is almost over.
“We’re coming into a time of more normalcy. A time when we expect people after the past year to be consuming much more than they were previously and catching up with the experiences that they missed out on,” said Feler.
Carl Tannenbaum is Chief Economist at Northern Trust, which is also predicting GDP at around 6% by next summer. But things won’t necessarily be rosy.
“I think the fundamental long term for the economy is okay but certainly not roaring,” said Tannenbaum. “We have a lot of debt that we’re going to have to pay down. But the demographics of the U.S. are skewing a little bit towards the older which is usually not associated with a roaring economy.”
The UCLA report also confirms the pandemic has contributed to inequality — with essentially — the rich getting richer.
The “haves” have accumulated about $1.6 trillion in savings in the past 9 months; money that may fuel the economy when things open up.