The ‘uniquely unpredictable’ nature of the Wagner Group

(NewsNation) — As the Wagner Group’s army appeared to take control Saturday of the military headquarters, in Rostov-on-Don, a city 660 miles south of Moscow, military analysts tell NewsNation that the only thing predictable about the paramilitary group is that they’re unpredictable.

“They’re hired guns,” Paul Rieckhoff, the founder of Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America, told NewsNation in May. “(The Wagner Group) has put together a force that fights and kills and dies for money. They’re scraping the bottom of the barrel sometimes in Russian society to include criminals in their forces.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday vowed harsh punishment for the move spearheaded by mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin.

In addition to Rostov-on-Don, Wagner troops and equipment also rolled into Russia’s Lipetsk province, about 225 miles south of Moscow.

Prigozhin’s private army, known as Wagner, has been fighting alongside regular Russian troops in Ukraine. His goals weren’t immediately clear, but the rebellion marks an escalation in his struggle with Russian military leaders, whom he accused of botching the war in Ukraine and hobbling his forces in the field.

Back in May, Rieckhoff noted the challenge the Wagner Group posed for Putin.

“It sounds like sometimes (The Wagner Group) is on (Putin’s) side and sometimes they’re holding him hostage. It’s another unpredictable part of this,” said Rieckhoff.

Prigozhin said he wanted to punish Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu after he accused government forces of attacking Wagner field camps in Ukraine with rockets, helicopter gunships and artillery. He claimed that “a huge number of our comrades got killed.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Moscow is suffering “full-scale weakness” and that Kyiv was protecting Europe from “the spread of Russian evil and chaos.”

Despite the confusion and infighting, Rieckhoff said the Wagner Group is not trying to do Ukraine any favors.

“If you’re (Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy), on the other side, (The Wagner Group) is the bad guys; they’re a part of the group that’s trying to occupy your country and kill your people,” Rieckhoff said.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.