Frontlines with Robert Sherman: It might come down to this

NewsNation National Correspondent Robert Sherman has found himself on the frontlines of some of the world’s biggest stories: from Ukraine to Israel and across the United States. He shares what he’s seeing on the ground. Subscribe to his newsletter: Frontlines with Robert Sherman here. 

It’s not an overstatement to suggest this moment is one of the most pivotal in the war between Israel and Hamas.

We’ve been in this situation before. Delegations to Cairo. Hostage release and cease-fire deals on the table. Since November, all of these attempts have ended in a fizzle without an agreement.

This go around is different, however, as Israel is framing this as its last stab at diplomacy to get a deal done. What comes next is an operation in Rafah. 

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“With these negotiations, the only thing preventing a hostage deal is Hamas,” said Israeli government spokesperson Raquela Karamson. “Israel has come again and again to the negotiating table and has made very difficult concessions on our end to bring our people home.”

It is true that Israel had reportedly lowered their demands and made concessions to get this across the finish line. Secretary of State Antony Blinken made his seventh visit to the region this week communicating the same as he tries to help get this done.

“Hamas has before it a proposal that is extraordinarily, extraordinarily generous, on the part of Israel,” Blinken said. “And in this moment, the only thing standing between the people of Gaza and a cease-fire is Hamas.”

“Generous” is of course a matter of perspective, and the table looks different where you sit.

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For Hamas, its position has not changed. The group wants a deal that will sunset to the end of the war. Israel has repeatedly communicated that the only way the war ends is with Hamas’ annihilation. There lies the biggest sticking point. 

As of this writing, Hamas is still reviewing the proposal and has shown an openness to discussing more. This is almost assuredly the longest they’ve poured over one single deal. What does that mean? Who really knows. The talks continue.

As discussed on “Elizabeth Vargas Reports” last night, there is a question many in Israel really don’t want to answer: How many hostages are realistically alive? At least 30 are confirmed dead, according to the Israelis, but the door has been left open for that number to be much higher. 

Some are alive, however. In the last week, we’ve seen Hamas release propaganda footage showing three different hostages speaking directly to the camera. Two of them hold dual citizenship with the United States.

A quick editorial note on this: The videos come directly from Hamas, so it’s impossible to know how genuine the hostages’ words were or how much influence Hamas had on what they said. 

In the videos, they plead for the Israeli government to cut a deal to broker their freedom. American-Israeli Hersh Goldberg-Polin gave a more strong rebuke of the leadership in Jerusalem. 

“You should be ashamed of yourselves for neglecting us along with thousands on Oct. 7,” Goldberg-Polin said. 

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“Sometimes we feel you abandoned us,” said American-Israeli Keith Seigel. “I call on the prime minister and all ministers to be flexible with the negotiations to get a deal soon. We feel there is procrastination, and the deal takes a long time. “

The family of Goldberg-Polin gave media outlets permission to use his video because they believe his sentiments accurately articulate what he and the other hostages are feeling at the present moment. They also said the video marked the first time they’ve heard his voice in months. 

So, some hostages are alive but how many exactly is a mystery. Many here have low optimism that the number is high.

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Those holding onto hope have been demonstrating constantly here in Israel calling on the government to cut a deal, fearing time is of the essence. To hostage families, destroying Hamas doesn’t matter. Rafah is pointless. Empty the jails of Palestinian prisoners, even those convicted of violent crimes like murder, if that’s what it takes to get their loved ones home.

Those we speak with not as closely connected to the hostage situation are more tepid on this stance. Everyone wants the hostages to come home. Every day we see the “Bring them home now” T-shirt and the “let my people go” stickers. But, some voice quiet concerns about giving up too much and what that will mean for Israel’s national security. 

I’ve had several people remind me of a certain video: A Hamas leader giving an interview in which he vows Oct. 7 is just the beginning and the group has every intention of doing this “again and again.” At this point, seemingly everyone in Israel has seen this interview. 

Something that’s not quietly talked about here? The demonstrations on American college campuses. Calling a foreign country home these last few months, you come across many different media outlets. American television, French, British, Israeli. Seemingly every screen here is filled with the images coming out of Columbia University and UCLA, and every eyeball in the room is locked on what’s happening. 

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“They don’t understand our situation,” is a phrase I’ve heard repeatedly here. Yet, now there seems to be a greater sense of urgency to articulate their position. People here do feel the pressure building as support seems to be diminishing in their eyes. 

Nevertheless, Israel’s leadership has shown through its actions that they will make their own decisions. Responding to Iran’s attack on Israel despite the U.S. reportedly telling them to walk away is the latest example. 

Something we’ll be reporting on today here at NewsNation: Universities in Israel are offering to take in Jewish students at American universities if they don’t feel safe. 

A statement from the Association of University Heads, Israel signed by the presidents of nine universities here reads in part: “We offer our support to the Jewish and Israeli students and faculty facing these difficult circumstances. We will do our best to assist those of them who wish to join Israeli universities and find a welcoming academic and personal home.”

The provost at one of those universities said their phones are ringing from parents as they ask which is safer: sending my Jewish child to a university in the U.S., or to a university in Israel where there’s an ongoing war?

A noteworthy development in Thursday’s State Department briefing: The Erez crossing between northern Gaza and Israel is now open with aid trucks going in. Northern Gaza is where concerns for the humanitarian situation have been the highest because it has been, to this point, more difficult to deliver aid to that part of Gaza due to the fighting.

The State Department says an aid convoy from Jordan was attacked by Israeli settlers. Arrests have been made. But, in that same breath, the State Department also said publicly that Hamas seized the aid.

“That aid was intercepted and diverted by Hamas, on the ground in Gaza,” said State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller. “And ultimately, the U.N. is either in the process or has by now recovered that aid. But, it was an unacceptable act by Hamas to divert this aid to begin with, to seize this aid.”

Israel has accused Hamas of doing this for months, but Thursday marked the first time the State Department acknowledged a “widespread” case.

The U.S. says the amount of aid going into Gaza has significantly improved, but the administration’s stance remains unchanged: it cannot and will not support a military operation in Rafah. Presently, over a million Palestinians are sheltering in the city, and it is the opinion of American leadership that there is no realistic way to evacuate that many people before the next phase of the war. 

And while Prime Minister Netanyahu says a ground operation in Rafah is happening no matter the circumstances,, the U.S. is trying to cross one bridge at a time: get aid in now, get a cease-fire deal ASAP, pump the brakes on the war later.

We’ll see. 

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily of NewsNation.