(NewsNation) — It’s hard to imagine, but a week ago, we woke up thinking the coming week would be defined by Republicans fighting over a speaker. This is proof you never worry about the right thing!
But don’t worry, Republicans are still fighting over a speaker, proving true the Washington adage: “Never underestimate Republicans’ ability to screw it up.”
In the Middle East, the clock started for a ground invasion at approximately midnight local and 5 p.m. ET Thursday with the Israeli 24-hour warning to the United Nations. That means the invasion can begin any time after 5 p.m. ET Friday night. As night fell in Israel, the IDF began raids and engineering work in the Gaza buffer zone.
If the Israelis do have any actual tactical advantage over Hamas, it is the Israeli ability to see and operate at night and with combined arms. That said, Hamas clearly has more sophisticated weapons and better technology than anybody thought, so how much of an advantage is to be determined.
The timing is significant. It’s on Shabbat but less than a week from Hamas’ initial attack. Israel’s spin-up is impressive; it currently has a 10-to-1 ratio of 300,000 to 30,000.
There is a lot of reporting that Hamas is keeping civilians from evacuating the northern part of Gaza. At this point, who becomes responsible for their likely deaths? Is it the Israelis who warned them, or Hamas who just slaughtered civilians and are now using them as human shields? Think about that when the Associated Press reports that Gaza’s hospital is filled with dying children.
Remember when the United States went after ISIS after similar atrocities to the ones Hamas has committed? The coalition carpet-bombed Mosul back to the Stone Age. The same thing happened when the Allies took out Nazi Germany, and there was no warning about the coming invasion.
And there was no international outcry. Again, is Israel, and only Israel, held to a double standard?
And, where is the UN on this video put out by Hamas? If digging up water pipes so you can build rockets doesn’t cause a “humanitarian disaster” or constitute a war crime, what does?
Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin was in Tel Aviv with the same lecturing as Secretary of State Antony Blinken and President Joe Biden, that democracies are more secure when we uphold the rules of war. Why does he feel the need to say this unless there is an implicit accusation that Israel has or would break the rules of war? The Israelis hear this loud and clear. For what it’s worth, the Biden administration is showing a deep misunderstanding of Israeli psychology. The Israelis show the most restraint and give the most when they feel fully supported by the United States, not when they’re being lectured. For example, that is how former President George H.W. Bush got Israel to not bomb Iraq after they were hit with Scud missiles during the Gulf War. And, that’s how former President George W. Bush got Israel to withdraw from Gaza and give massive concessions to the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank.
Speaking of George W. Bush—on Tuesday, at a private event near Santa Barbara, California, he said, “It’s not going to take long for people [to say]: ‘It’s gone on too long. Surely, there’s a way to settle this through negotiations. Both sides are guilty.’”
He also said, “My view is: One side is guilty. And it’s not Israel” and “You’re dealing with cold-blooded killers.”
Bush has a unique perspective, not only because of his response to 9/11 but also because he was president during the Second Intifada and Hamas takeover of Gaza. It is worth looking at his remarks as an insight into Bibi, Israel and how wartime leaders assess strategic decisions.
Back to the invasion, expect your typical ground assault on a fortified target: heavy bombardment from the air combined with artillery to shape the battlefield. This will be followed by scout and engineering units to clear lanes through Hamas defenses. Hamas knows this. Israel knows this. There isn’t a lot of imagination required here.
The IDF has southern Israel locked down pretty well, and Gaza is a black hole, so the opening hours will look very boring, save some flashes.
As the Financial Times article pointed out yesterday, the 300-meter buffer zone from the fence to the first buildings in Gaza will be a very dangerous spot for Israeli armor to traverse in the opening hours.
Watch for a potential amphibious landing on Gaza’s beaches. Israel’s naval commanders are second only to DEVGRU, and it is a very quick way into Gaza City. In the past, Israel has done this to force Hamas into defending both sides.
As we pointed out last night on the maps, Gaza is a defender’s dream for urban warfare. The casualties on both sides of this will be staggering. This might be the “worst” urban combat situation ever witnessed, especially given the Israelis’ stated goals of wiping Hamas out, not just occupying Gaza.
Where are the Arabs?
MSNBC this morning (finally) did a little bit about Arab responsibility (and lack of action) for the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza. It’s a good lane and one that people don’t think about. Martin Besher actually told the truth: The Arabs don’t care. From Morocco to Indonesia, Muslim countries could offer asylum and/or aid to Palestinians. They don’t. They just blame Israel.
Egypt is still not allowing anybody out of the Gaza Strip. Egypt also built an above/below ground wall to stop the crossing of people and blocking of tunnels. Again, why is it any less guilty than Israel for the “siege of Gaza”?
As we pointed out last night, the Israelis aren’t entirely sure about the Gaza tunnel system, either inside Gaza, or more importantly, the tunnels from Gaza into Israel. Hamas had been working on them for years. Given the intelligence failures, Israel will be worried there are tunnels into Israel that it doesn’t know about yet.
When discussing the “Day of Jihad,” it is important to note that Hamas doesn’t just call for the destruction of the state of Israel, they call for the elimination of Jews across the world. All the protesters in America who say that are “anti-Zionist” and not antisemitic should be called out for supporting a terrorist group that wants to murder Jews worldwide. At this point, it is difficult to see the Palestinian flag as symbolizing anything but the destruction of Israel.
For all the discussion of a two-state solution, the Hamas attacks ended that, ensuring that no Israeli prime minister in the next 50 years can make a deal.
Keep in mind, it tells us a lot that things in Jerusalem and the West Bank stayed quiet today:
- Palestinians in Israel, especially Arabs in Jerusalem, don’t like Hamas and are rightly revolted by Hamas’ tactics.
- The West Bank is controlled by Fatah (Palestinian Authority), who hates Hamas. It is noteworthy that it hates Hamas more than it hates Israel. The PA could have easily turned out huge protests and complicated the Israelis’ security posture significantly, but it didn’t.
Foreign Affairs published a good brief on the Hezbollah/Iran question as well.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not of NewsNation.